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Basel II procyclicality: The case of South Africa

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  • Liu, Guangling (Dave)
  • Seeiso, Nkhahle E.

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of bank capital regulation on business cycle fluctuations. In particular, we study the procyclical nature of Basel II claimed in the literature. To do so, we adopt the Bernanke et al. (1999) “financial accelerator” model (BGG), to which we augment a banking sector. We first study the impact of a negative shock to entrepreneurs' net worth and a positive monetary policy shock on business cycle fluctuations. We then look at the impact of a negative net worth shock on business cycle fluctuations when the minimum capital requirement increases from 8 percent to 12 percent. Our comparison studies between the augmented BGG model with Basel I bank regulation and the one with Basel II bank regulation suggest that, in the presence of credit market frictions and bank capital regulation, the liquidity premium effect further amplifies the financial accelerator effect through the external finance premium channel, which, in turn, contributes to the amplification of Basel II procyclicality. Moreover, under Basel II bank regulation, in response to a negative net worth shock, the liquidity premium and the external finance premium rise much more if the minimum bank capital requirement increases, which, in turn, amplify the response of real variables. Finally, small adjustments in monetary policy can result in stronger response in the real economy, in the presence of Basel II bank regulation in particular, which is undesirable.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 848-857

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:3:p:848-857

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Business cycle fluctuations; Financial accelerator; Bank capital requirement; Monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0809-02, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
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  9. Guangling (Dave) Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2006. "A Small-Scale DSGE Model for Forecasting the South African Economy," Working Papers 200621, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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  12. Inês Drumond, 2008. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Basel Accords: A Synthesis," FEP Working Papers 277, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  13. Anil Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 18-31.
  14. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  15. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2009. "Do credit constraints amplify macroeconomic fluctuations?," Working Paper Series 2009-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and banking in a DSGE model of the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 740, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  17. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  18. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Enria & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta & Mario Quagliariello, 2010. "Pro-cyclicality of capital regulation: is it a problem? How to fix it?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 74, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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  20. Bojan Markovic, 2006. "Bank capital channels in the monetary transmission mechanism," Bank of England working papers 313, Bank of England.
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Cited by:
  1. Drumond, Inês & Jorge, José, 2013. "Loan interest rates under risk-based capital requirements: The impact of banking market structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 602-607.
  2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & K. Alper & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Working Papers Series 237, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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