IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v28y2011i1p630-636.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation variability between central bank's preferences and the structure of the economy: A note

Author

Listed:
  • Sweidan, Osama D.

Abstract

The current paper seeks to build a theoretical explanation to understand why many central banks failed to reduce inflation variability despite having the desire. The result proves that central bank's preferences are a necessary condition but not sufficient to guarantee lower inflation variability. The structure of the economy and the types of the shocks are significant factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Sweidan, Osama D., 2011. "Inflation variability between central bank's preferences and the structure of the economy: A note," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 630-636.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:630-636
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999310001057
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Marc-André Gosselin, 2007. "Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting," Staff Working Papers 07-18, Bank of Canada.
    3. Lee, Jim, 1999. "The inflation and output variability tradeoff: evidence from a Garch model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 63-67, January.
    4. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Is There a Trade‐Off Between Inflation Variability and Output‐Gap Variability in the EMU Countries?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(5), pages 691-706, November.
    5. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003. "Inflation Targeting under Asymmetric Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 763-785, October.
    6. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 219-239, March.
    7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility?: An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 247-274, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    9. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 808-817, December.
    10. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2007. "Optimal inflation Targeting: Further Developments of Inflation Targeting," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 6, pages 187-225, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2007. "Inflation Targeting: Assessing the Evidence," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: John McCombie & Carlos Rodríguez González (ed.), Issues in Finance and Monetary Policy, chapter 3, pages 28-46, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Simon Broadbent, 1996. "The British Stake in Hong Kong: Trade in Goods," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 104, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    13. Weitzman Nagar, 2007. "Asymmetry in Monetary Policy: An Asymmetric Objective Function and a New-Keynesian Model," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2007.02, Bank of Israel.
    14. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 2003. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 657-665, July.
    15. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2005:i:12:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jim Lee, 2002. "The Inflation-Output Variability Tradeoff and Monetary Policy: Evidence from a GARCH Model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(1), pages 175-188, July.
    17. Marc-André Gosselin, 2007. "Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2007(Winter), pages 17-27.
    18. Jim Lee, 2004. "The Inflation‐Output Variability Trade‐off: OECD Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 344-356, July.
    19. Mr. Alain Ize, 2006. "Spending Seigniorage: Do Central Banks Have a Governance Problem?," IMF Working Papers 2006/058, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Osama Sweidan, 2008. "The Asymmetric Loss Function and the Central Banks' Ability in Developing Countries," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 387-403.
    21. Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "Inflation/Output Variance Trade-Offs and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 214-234, May.
    23. Osama Sweidan & Fadwa Kalaji, 2005. "The central bank cost constraint and output-inflation variability: a note on Cecchetti and Ehrmann 2000," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(12), pages 1-6.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Is There a Trade‐Off Between Inflation Variability and Output‐Gap Variability in the EMU Countries?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(5), pages 691-706, November.
    2. Abdelkader Aguir & Mounir Smida, 2014. "The Effects of Inflation Targeting on Macroeconomics Performance," Post-Print hal-03791288, HAL.
    3. Bulir, Ales & Hurnik, Jaromir, 2006. "The Maastricht inflation criterion: How unpleasant is purgatory?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 385-404, December.
    4. Osama D. Sweidan, 2009. "Asymmetric central bank's preference and inflation rate in Jordan," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 232-245, October.
    5. Jan Libich, 2006. "Inflexibility Of Inflation Targeting Revisited: Modeling The "Anchoring" Effect," CAMA Working Papers 2006-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    7. Coenen Günter & Orphanides Athanasios & Wieland Volker, 2004. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, February.
    8. Weitzman Nagar, 2007. "Asymmetry in Monetary Policy: An Asymmetric Objective Function and a New-Keynesian Model," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2007.02, Bank of Israel.
    9. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    10. Jim Lee, 2004. "The Inflation‐Output Variability Trade‐off: OECD Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 344-356, July.
    11. Mohammed SAIFUL ISLAM & Mohammad Taslim UDDIN, 2011. "Inflation Targeting as the Monetary Policy Framework: Bangladesh Perspective," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 106-119, June.
    12. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Capistrán, Carlos, 2008. "Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1415-1427, November.
    14. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    15. Dennis, Richard & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2006. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 847-872, June.
    16. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Alexandros Panethimitakis & Athanassios Vamvakidis, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Evidence from Aggregate European Data," Working papers 2005-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    17. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    18. Zubarev, Andrei V. & Kiyutsevskaya, Anna & Trunin, Pavel, 2015. "Conditions and Results of the Application of Inflation Targeting," Published Papers 431502, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    19. Ales Bulir & Jaromir Hurnik, 2006. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: "Saints" and "Sinners"," Working Papers 2006/8, Czech National Bank.
    20. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "Cross‐Country Evidence On Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance And Garch Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 509-541, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation variability; Quadratic loss function; Asymmetric loss function; Central banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:630-636. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.