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Asia’s financial interconnectedness: Evolution, implications, and insights from past crises

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  • Rosenkranz, Peter
  • Melchor, Monica

Abstract

Past crisis episodes have illustrated the interplay of macroeconomic and financial conditions, including the presence of harmful macrofinancial feedback effects. Meanwhile, financial markets have become increasingly connected and economic and financial cycles more synchronized over time. Against the backdrop of past financial crises and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we document and analyze trends in Asia’s financial interconnectedness over the past 3 decades, as well as its possible role in predicting financial crises. Employing a vector-autoregressive model and a panel probit regression, we find that financial interconnectedness increased across Asia and the Pacific, being particularly pronounced during past crises, including the present COVID-19 pandemic. We also find that increased interconnectedness is strongly and positively associated with the probability of crisis onset.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosenkranz, Peter & Melchor, Monica, 2022. "Asia’s financial interconnectedness: Evolution, implications, and insights from past crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 685-707.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:76:y:2022:i:c:p:685-707
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2022.08.024
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial interconnectedness; Financial crises; Asian financial markets; Vector autoregression model; Dynamic panel model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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