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Decomposition analysis to examine Australia’s 2030 GHGs emissions target: How hard will it be to achieve?

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  • Shahiduzzaman, Md
  • Layton, Allan

Abstract

The Australian government has recently pledged a reduction in GHGs emissions of 26–28% below the 2005 level by 2030. How big is the challenge for the country to achieve this target in terms of its present emissions profile, recent historical trends, and the contributions to those trends from key proximate factors contributing to emissions? In this paper, we attempt a quantitative judgement of the challenge by using decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis it appears the announced target will be quite challenging to achieve if the average annual mitigating effects from economic restructuring, energy efficiency improvements and movement towards less emissions-intensive energy sources in evidence over 2002–2013 continued through to 2030; however, if the contribution from these mitigating sources in evidence over 2006–2013 can be sustained, achievement of the target will be much less challenging. The challenge for government then will be to provide a policy framework to ensure the more pronounced beneficial impacts of the mitigating factors evidenced during 2006–2013 can be maintained over the years to 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahiduzzaman, Md & Layton, Allan, 2015. "Decomposition analysis to examine Australia’s 2030 GHGs emissions target: How hard will it be to achieve?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:48:y:2015:i:c:p:25-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2015.10.003
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    2. Kuriyama, Akihisa & Tamura, Kentaro & Kuramochi, Takeshi, 2019. "Can Japan enhance its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets? Assessment of economic and energy-related assumptions in Japan's NDC," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 328-340.
    3. Leal, Patrícia Alexandra & Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto, 2019. "Decoupling economic growth from GHG emissions: Decomposition analysis by sectoral factors for Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 12-26.
    4. Bowen Xiao & Dongxiao Niu & Xiaodan Guo, 2016. "The Driving Forces of Changes in CO 2 Emissions in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Mariano González-Sánchez & Juan Luis Martín-Ortega, 2020. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Growth in Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Determinants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, January.
    6. Román-Collado, Rocío & Cansino, José M. & Botia, Camilo, 2018. "How far is Colombia from decoupling? Two-level decomposition analysis of energy consumption changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 687-700.

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