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Debt stabilization games in the presence of risk premia

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  • Engwerda, Jacob
  • van Aarle, Bas
  • Plasmans, Joseph
  • Weeren, Arie

Abstract

As a result of the recent financial crisis and the ensuing economic recession, fiscal deficits have soared in many OECD countries. As a consequence, government debt has been on the rise again after a period of stable or declining government debt. In this paper we analyze debt stabilization in a country that features endogenous risk premia, imposed by financial markets that evaluate the probability of debt default by governments. Endogenous risk premia arise by assuming, e.g., simple linear relations between risk premia and the level of debt. As a result the real interest rate on government debt can be written as a constant (measuring the risk-free real interest rate corrected for real output growth) plus an endogenous risk premium that depends on the debt level. We bring such an endogenous risk premium into Tabellini (1986) model and analyze the impact of it. This gives rise to a non-linear differential game. We solve this game for both a cooperative setting and a non-cooperative setting. The non-cooperative game is solved under an open-loop information structure. We present a bifurcation analysis w.r.t. the risk premium parameter.

Suggested Citation

  • Engwerda, Jacob & van Aarle, Bas & Plasmans, Joseph & Weeren, Arie, 2013. "Debt stabilization games in the presence of risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2525-2546.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:12:p:2525-2546
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2013.06.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrico Saltari & Willi Semmler & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2022. "A Nash Equilibrium for Differential Games with Moving-Horizon Strategies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 1041-1054, October.
    2. Christos Mavrodimitrakis, 2022. "Debt stabilization and financial stability in a monetary union: Market versus authority‐based preventive solutions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2582-2599, April.
    3. Z. Nikooeinejad & M. Heydari & M. Saffarzadeh & G. B. Loghmani & J. Engwerda, 2022. "Numerical Simulation of Non-cooperative and Cooperative Equilibrium Solutions for a Stochastic Government Debt Stabilization Game," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 775-801, February.
    4. Jacob Engwerda & Bas van Aarle & Arie Weeren & Bas Van Aarle, 2015. "Debt Stabilization and Debt Mutualization in a Monetary Union with Endogenous Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series 5564, CESifo.
    5. De Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale, 2023. "Interactions of fiscal and monetary policies under waves of optimism and pessimism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 466-481.
    6. Jacob Engwerda & Davoud Mahmoudinia & Rahim Dalali Isfahani, 2016. "Government and Central Bank Interaction under Uncertainty: A Differential Games Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(2), pages 225-259, Spring.
    7. Willi Semmler & Alexander Haider, 2018. "Cooperative Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 217-234, July.
    8. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Enrico Saltari & Willi Semmler, 2018. "Public debt stabilization: the relevance of policymakers’ time horizons," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 177(3), pages 287-299, December.
    9. D. Blueschke & R. Neck & A. Wittmann, 2020. "How relieving is public debt relief? Monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union during a debt crisis," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(2), pages 539-559, June.
    10. Barucci, Emilio & Brachetta, Matteo & Marazzina, Daniele, 2023. "On the feasibility of a debt redemption fund," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    11. van Aarle, Bas & Engwerda, Jacob & Weeren, Arie, 2018. "Effects of debt mutualization in a monetary union with endogenous risk premia: Can Eurobonds contribute to debt stabilization?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 100-114.
    12. Zongsen Zou & Xiuling Wang & Dengtian Feng, 2020. "Adhere to the rules or be discretionary? Empirical evidence from the euro area," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(2), pages 501-525, April.
    13. Engwerda, Jacob & van Aarle, Bas & Anevlavis, Tzanis, 2019. "Debt stabilization games in a monetary union: What are the effects of introducing eurobonds?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 78-102.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt stabilization; Differential games; Non-linear dynamical systems; Economic dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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