Uncertainty and the trade-off between scale and flexibility in investment
AbstractThis paper analyzes the behavior of a firm that chooses both the scale and timing of its investment. Sensitivity analysis shows that greater demand volatility is associated with the firm investing in larger increments, less frequently. This is in contrast to the conventional wisdom, which is that greater volatility leads to investment in smaller increments, more frequently. Overall, the reduced frequency dominates the greater scale, so that the long-run average rate of investment is a decreasing function of demand volatility. The timing and scale of investment are most sensitive to volatility when there are substantial investment economies of scale.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc
Investment; Uncertainty; Real options; Economies of scale;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
- D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
- G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kort, Peter M. & Murto, Pauli & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2010. "Uncertainty and stepwise investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-203, April.
- Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
- Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D., 2002. "Option Value, Uncertainty, and the Investment Decision," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 341-374, September.
- Giuseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1990.
"Kinked Adjustment Costs and Aggregate Dynamics,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 237-296
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guthrie, Graeme, 2010. "House prices, development costs, and the value of waiting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 56-71, July.
- Folta, Timothy B. & Johnson, Douglas R. & O'Brien, Jonathan, 2006. "Uncertainty, irreversibility, and the likelihood of entry: An empirical assessment of the option to defer," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 432-452, November.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- Konstantinos Drakos, 2011. "Testing Uncertainty's Effect in Real Options with Multiple Capital Goods," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(310), pages 330-346, 04.
- Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000.
" What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-53, April.
- Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998. "What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Studies in Economics 9804, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
- Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie, 2012. "Price-cap regulation and the scale and timing of investment," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 43(3), pages 537-561, 09.
- Ilan Cooper, 2006. "Asset Pricing Implications of Nonconvex Adjustment Costs and Irreversibility of Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 139-170, 02.
- Wong, Kit Pong, 2007. "The effect of uncertainty on investment timing in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2152-2167, July.
- Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1998. "A model of sequential investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 437-463, March.
- repec:fth:coluec:465 is not listed on IDEAS
- George W. Blazenko & Andrey D. Pavlov, 2009. "Investment Timing for Dynamic Business Expansion," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 837-860, December.
- Guthrie, Graeme, 2013. "A value premium without operating leverage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.