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Chaos in the cobweb model with a new learning dynamic

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  • Waters, George A.

Abstract

The new learning dynamic of Brown et al. [(1950). Solutions of games by differential equation. In: Kuhn, H.W., Tucker, A.W. (Eds.), Contributions to the Theory of Games I. Annals of Mathematics Studies, vol. 24. Princeton University Press, Princeton] is introduced to macroeconomic dynamics via the cobweb model with rational and naive forecasting strategies. This dynamic has appealing properties such as positive correlation and inventiveness. There is persistent heterogeneity in the forecasts and chaotic behavior with bifurcations between periodic orbits and strange attractors for the same range of parameter values as in previous studies. Unlike Brock and Hommes [(1997). A rational route to randomness. Econometrica (65), 1059-1095], however, there exist intuitively appealing steady states where one strategy dominates, and there are qualitative differences in the resulting dynamics of the two approaches. There are similar bifurcations in a parameter that represents how aggressively agents switch to better performing strategies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1201-1216

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:6:p:1201-1216

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Chaos Cobweb model Learning BNN;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pfajfar, Damjan, 2013. "Formation of rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1434-1452.
  2. George A. Waters, 2011. "Endogenous Rational Bubbles," Working Paper Series 20111003, Illinois State University, Department of Economics.
  3. William R. Parke & George A. Waters, 2011. "On the Evolutionary Stability of Rational Expectations," Working Paper Series 20111002, Illinois State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Waters, George A., 2010. "Instability in the cobweb model under the BNN dynamic," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 230-237, March.

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