Computational modelling of price formation in the electricity pool of England and Wales
AbstractThis paper develops a detailed computational model of price formation in the England and Wales electricity pool, as it operated for 11 years from 1990 to 2001. It is clear that during this period, the repeated nature of the daily auction, between a small number of generators, with a substantial amount of information in common, gave rise to a continuous evolution of learning and gaming in practice with no evidence of convergence to a stationary Nash solution. In terms of representing reality, a computational approach inspired by evolutionary economics, can succeed in reflecting well the type of behaviour observed, to an extent that cannot be matched by alternative analytical models. Cycles of pricing appear in the model, apparently as they seem to do in practice, yet average behaviour has been validated against the theoretical supply function results for the more stylised circumstances where analytical results are possible. The paper therefore makes a methodological contribution in the development of a model of competitive electricity markets inspired by computational learning and gaming. It also makes an applied contribution by providing a more realistic basis for identifying whether high market prices can be ascribed to problems of market structure or market conduct.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc
Auctions Electricity Computational learning Market power;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
- Frank A. Wolak & Robert H. Patrick, 2001. "The Impact of Market Rules and Market Structure on the Price Determination Process in the England and Wales Electricity Market," NBER Working Papers 8248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Borenstein, Severin, 2000.
"Understanding Competitive Pricing and Market Power in Wholesale Electricity Markets,"
The Electricity Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 49-57, July.
- Borenstein, Severin, 1999. "Understanding Competitive Pricing and Market Power in Wholesale Electricity Markets," Competition Policy Center, Working Paper Series qt00p2p3wv, Competition Policy Center, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Day, Christopher J & Bunn, Derek W, 2001. "Divestiture of Generation Assets in the Electricity Pool of England and Wales: A Computational Approach to Analyzing Market Power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 123-41, March.
- Green, Richard J & Newbery, David M, 1992.
"Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 929-53, October.
- Green, Richard & Newbery, David M G, 1991. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Von der Fehr, N.H.M. & Harbord, D., 1992.
"Spot Market Competition in the UK Electricity Industry,"
09/1992, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik Morch & Harbord, David, 1993. "Spot Market Competition in the UK Electricity Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 531-46, May.
- Mark Armstrong & Simon Cowan & John Vickers, 1994. "Regulatory Reform: Economic Analysis and British Experience," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510790, December.
- Rubinstein, Ariel, 1991. "Comments on the Interpretation of Game Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 909-24, July.
- Green, Richard, 1999. "The Electricity Contract Market in England and Wales," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 107-24, March.
- Aleksandr Rudkevich & Max Duckworth & Richard Rosen, 1998. "Modeling Electricity Pricing in a Deregulated Generation Industry: The Potential for Oligopoly Pricing in a Poolco," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 19-48.
- Allaz Blaise & Vila Jean-Luc, 1993. "Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Green, Richard J, 1996. "Increasing Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 205-16, June.
- Albert Banal-Estañol & Augusto Rupérez-Micola, 2010.
"Are Agent-based Simulations Robust? The Wholesale Electricity Trading Case,"
443, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Albert Banal-Estañol & Augusto Rupérez-Micola, 2010. "Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case," Economics Working Papers 1214, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Bazmi, Aqeel Ahmed & Zahedi, Gholamreza, 2011. "Sustainable energy systems: Role of optimization modeling techniques in power generation and supply—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3480-3500.
- Banal-Estañol, Albert & Rupérez Micola, Augusto, 2011. "Behavioural simulations in spot electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 147-159, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.