IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v88y2016icp38-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring multiscaling in financial time-series

Author

Listed:
  • Buonocore, R.J.
  • Aste, T.
  • Di Matteo, T.

Abstract

We discuss the origin of multiscaling in financial time-series and investigate how to best quantify it. Our methodology consists in separating the different sources of measured multifractality by analyzing the multi/uni-scaling behavior of synthetic time-series with known properties. We use the results from the synthetic time-series to interpret the measure of multifractality of real log-returns time-series. The main finding is that the aggregation horizon of the returns can introduce a strong bias effect on the measure of multifractality. This effect can become especially important when returns distributions have power law tails with exponents in the range (2, 5). We discuss the right aggregation horizon to mitigate this bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Buonocore, R.J. & Aste, T. & Di Matteo, T., 2016. "Measuring multiscaling in financial time-series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 38-47.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:88:y:2016:i:c:p:38-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2015.11.022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077915003872
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2015.11.022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bacry, E. & Delour, J. & Muzy, J.F., 2001. "Modelling financial time series using multifractal random walks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 84-92.
    2. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2002. "Multifractality In Asset Returns: Theory And Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 381-406, August.
    3. Wei-Xing Zhou, 2009. "The components of empirical multifractality in financial returns," Papers 0908.1089, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2009.
    4. Liu, Ruipeng & Di Matteo, T. & Lux, Thomas, 2007. "True and apparent scaling: The proximity of the Markov-switching multifractal model to long-range dependence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 35-42.
    5. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 991-1012.
    6. Barunik, Jozef & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2010. "On Hurst exponent estimation under heavy-tailed distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3844-3855.
    7. Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Aste, Tomaso, 2013. "Non-stationary multifractality in stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6470-6483.
    8. Di Matteo, T. & Aste, T. & Dacorogna, M.M., 2003. "Scaling behaviors in differently developed markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 183-188.
    9. Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2012. "Finite-size effect and the components of multifractality in financial volatility," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 147-155.
    10. Barunik, Jozef & Aste, Tomaso & Di Matteo, T. & Liu, Ruipeng, 2012. "Understanding the source of multifractality in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(17), pages 4234-4251.
    11. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Multifractality in stock indexes: Fact or Fiction?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3605-3614.
    12. Abadir, Karim & Magnus, Jan, 2004. "03.6.1 The Central Limit Theorem for Student's Distribution—Solution," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1261-1263, December.
    13. Calvet, Laurent & Fisher, Adlai, 2001. "Forecasting multifractal volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 27-58, November.
    14. Ruipeng Liu & T. Di Matteo & Thomas Lux, 2008. "Multifractality And Long-Range Dependence Of Asset Returns: The Scaling Behavior Of The Markov-Switching Multifractal Model With Lognormal Volatility Components," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 669-684.
    15. Moyano, L.G. & de Souza, J. & Duarte Queirós, S.M., 2006. "Multi-fractal structure of traded volume in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 371(1), pages 118-121.
    16. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2012. "Fractal Markets Hypothesis And The Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons And Liquidity," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(06), pages 1-13.
    17. Stošić, Darko & Stošić, Dusan & Stošić, Tatijana & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2015. "Multifractal analysis of managed and independent float exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 428(C), pages 13-18.
    18. Liu, Ruipeng & Di Matteo, Tiziana & Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Multifractality and long-range dependence of asset returns: The scaling behaviour of the Markov-switching multifractal model with lognormal volatility components," Kiel Working Papers 1427, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Grech, Dariusz & Mazur, Zygmunt, 2013. "On the scaling ranges of detrended fluctuation analysis for long-term memory correlated short series of data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(10), pages 2384-2397.
    20. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    21. Matteo, T. Di & Aste, T. & Dacorogna, Michel M., 2005. "Long-term memories of developed and emerging markets: Using the scaling analysis to characterize their stage of development," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 827-851, April.
    22. Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Gramatica, Ruggero & Aste, Tomaso, 2012. "Dynamical generalized Hurst exponent as a tool to monitor unstable periods in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3180-3189.
    23. de Souza, Jeferson & Duarte Queirós, Sílvio M., 2009. "Effective multifractal features of high-frequency price fluctuations time series and ℓ-variability diagrams," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 2512-2521.
    24. T. Di Matteo, 2007. "Multi-scaling in finance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 21-36.
    25. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas, 2013. "Multifractal models in finance: Their origin, properties, and applications," Kiel Working Papers 1860, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    26. J.-P. Bouchaud & M. Potters & M. Meyer, 2000. "Apparent multifractality in financial time series," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 13(3), pages 595-599, February.
    27. Raffaello Morales & T. Di Matteo & Tomaso Aste, 2012. "Non stationary multifractality in stock returns," Papers 1212.3195, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
    28. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    29. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frédéric Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Post-Print hal-00621058, HAL.
    30. Benoit Mandelbrot & Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet, 1997. "A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1164, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    31. Ying-Hui Shao & Gao Feng Gu & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2012. "Comparing the performance of FA, DFA and DMA using different synthetic long-range correlated time series," Papers 1208.4158, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duarte Queirós, Sílvio M. & Anteneodo, Celia, 2016. "Complexity in quantitative finance and economics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-2.
    2. Kristjanpoller, Werner & Bouri, Elie & Takaishi, Tetsuya, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies and equity funds: Evidence from an asymmetric multifractal analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    3. Kukacka, Jiri & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2021. "Does parameterization affect the complexity of agent-based models?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 324-356.
    4. Kristjanpoller, Werner & Minutolo, Marcel C., 2021. "Asymmetric multi-fractal cross-correlations of the price of electricity in the US with crude oil and the natural gas," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 572(C).
    5. Kukacka, Jiri & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Do ‘complex’ financial models really lead to complex dynamics? Agent-based models and multifractality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Ducha, F.A. & Atman, A.P.F. & Bosco de Magalhães, A.R., 2021. "Information flux in complex networks: Path to stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    7. Antoniades, I.P. & Karakatsanis, L.P. & Pavlos, E.G., 2021. "Dynamical characteristics of global stock markets based on time dependent Tsallis non-extensive statistics and generalized Hurst exponents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 578(C).
    8. Brandi, Giuseppe & Di Matteo, T., 2022. "Multiscaling and rough volatility: An empirical investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Li, Xing, 2021. "On the multifractal analysis of air quality index time series before and during COVID-19 partial lockdown: A case study of Shanghai, China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    10. Angelini, Daniele & Bianchi, Sergio, 2023. "Nonlinear biases in the roughness of a Fractional Stochastic Regularity Model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    11. Ioannis P. Antoniades & Giuseppe Brandi & L. G. Magafas & T. Di Matteo, 2020. "The use of scaling properties to detect relevant changes in financial time series: a new visual warning tool," Papers 2010.08890, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    12. Ruan, Qingsong & Zhou, Mi & Yin, Linsen & Lv, Dayong, 2021. "Hedging effectiveness of Chinese Treasury bond futures: New evidence based on nonlinear analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    13. Gang-Jin Wang & Chi Xie & Shou Chen, 2017. "Multiscale correlation networks analysis of the US stock market: a wavelet analysis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(3), pages 561-594, October.
    14. Vogl, Markus, 2023. "Hurst exponent dynamics of S&P 500 returns: Implications for market efficiency, long memory, multifractality and financial crises predictability by application of a nonlinear dynamics analysis framewo," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    15. Ioannis P. Antoniades & Leonidas P. Karakatsanis & Evgenios G. Pavlos, 2020. "Dynamical Characteristics of Global Stock Markets Based on Time Dependent Tsallis Non-Extensive Statistics and Generalized Hurst Exponents," Papers 2012.06856, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    16. Antoniades, I.P. & Brandi, Giuseppe & Magafas, L. & Di Matteo, T., 2021. "The use of scaling properties to detect relevant changes in financial time series: A new visual warning tool," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    17. Pagnottoni, Paolo & Spelta, Alessandro & Pecora, Nicolò & Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio, 2021. "Financial earthquakes: SARS-CoV-2 news shock propagation in stock and sovereign bond markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    18. Xu, Chao & Zhao, Xiaojun & Wang, Yanwen, 2022. "Causal decomposition on multiple time scales: Evidence from stock price-volume time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    19. Pagnottoni, Paolo & Spelta, Alessandro & Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio, 2022. "Climate change and financial stability: Natural disaster impacts on global stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 599(C).
    20. Schadner, Wolfgang, 2021. "On the persistence of market sentiment: A multifractal fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Hojin & Chang, Woojin, 2015. "Multifractal regime detecting method for financial time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 117-129.
    2. Barunik, Jozef & Aste, Tomaso & Di Matteo, T. & Liu, Ruipeng, 2012. "Understanding the source of multifractality in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(17), pages 4234-4251.
    3. Kukacka, Jiri & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2021. "Does parameterization affect the complexity of agent-based models?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 324-356.
    4. Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Aste, Tomaso, 2013. "Non-stationary multifractality in stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6470-6483.
    5. Kukacka, Jiri & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Do ‘complex’ financial models really lead to complex dynamics? Agent-based models and multifractality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Riccardo Junior Buonocore & Tomaso Aste & Tiziana Di Matteo, 2015. "Measuring multiscaling in financial time-series," Papers 1509.05471, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
    7. Krenar Avdulaj & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2020. "On Tail Dependence and Multifractality," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Antoniades, I.P. & Brandi, Giuseppe & Magafas, L. & Di Matteo, T., 2021. "The use of scaling properties to detect relevant changes in financial time series: A new visual warning tool," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    9. Ladislav Kristoufek & Miloslav Vosvrda, 2014. "Measuring capital market efficiency: long-term memory, fractal dimension and approximate entropy," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 87(7), pages 1-9, July.
    10. Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Gramatica, Ruggero & Aste, Tomaso, 2012. "Dynamical generalized Hurst exponent as a tool to monitor unstable periods in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3180-3189.
    11. Wei, Yu & Chen, Wang & Lin, Yu, 2013. "Measuring daily Value-at-Risk of SSEC index: A new approach based on multifractal analysis and extreme value theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2163-2174.
    12. Lee, Hojin & Song, Jae Wook & Chang, Woojin, 2016. "Multifractal Value at Risk model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 113-122.
    13. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2015. "Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 147-158.
    14. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2016. "Dynamic efficiency of stock markets and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 353-371.
    15. Chen, Wang & Wei, Yu & Lang, Qiaoqi & Lin, Yu & Liu, Maojuan, 2014. "Financial market volatility and contagion effect: A copula–multifractal volatility approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 289-300.
    16. Nava, Noemi & Di Matteo, T. & Aste, Tomaso, 2016. "Anomalous volatility scaling in high frequency financial data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 434-445.
    17. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Dengshi, 2011. "A copula–multifractal volatility hedging model for CSI 300 index futures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4260-4272.
    18. Ioannis P. Antoniades & Giuseppe Brandi & L. G. Magafas & T. Di Matteo, 2020. "The use of scaling properties to detect relevant changes in financial time series: a new visual warning tool," Papers 2010.08890, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    19. Noemi Nava & T. Di Matteo & Tomaso Aste, 2015. "Anomalous volatility scaling in high frequency financial data," Papers 1503.08465, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2015.
    20. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek, 2020. "Multiscale characteristics of the emerging global cryptocurrency market," Papers 2010.15403, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:88:y:2016:i:c:p:38-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.