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Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons and Liquidity

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  • Ladislav Kristoufek

Abstract

We investigate whether fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and invest- ment horizons give reasonable predictions about dynamics of the financial markets during the turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, fractal markets hypothesis considers financial markets as com- plex systems consisting of many heterogenous agents, which are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizon. In the paper, several novel measures of trading activity at different investment horizons are introduced through scaling of variance of the underlying processes. On the three most liquid US indices - DJI, NASDAQ and S&P500 - we show that predictions of fractal markets hypothesis actually fit the observed behavior quite well.

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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1203.4979.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Publication status: Published in Advances in Complex Systems 2012, Vol. 15(6), art. 1250065
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1203.4979

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  1. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
  2. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2011. "Are European equity markets efficient? New evidence from fractal analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 59-67, April.
  3. Domino, Krzysztof, 2011. "The use of the Hurst exponent to predict changes in trends on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(1), pages 98-109.
  4. T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & Michel M. Dacorogna, 2005. "Long-term memories of developed and emerging markets: Using the scaling analysis to characterize their stage of development," Econometrics, EconWPA 0503004, EconWPA.
  5. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2012. "Multifractal Height Cross-Correlation Analysis: A New Method for Analyzing Long-Range Cross-Correlations," Papers 1201.3473, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2012.
  6. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2009. "Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 154-163, September.
  7. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Canning, D & Gopikrishnan, P & Lee, Y & Liu, Y, 1999. "Econophysics: Can physicists contribute to the science of economics?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 156-169.
  8. Czarnecki, Łukasz & Grech, Dariusz & Pamuła, Grzegorz, 2008. "Comparison study of global and local approaches describing critical phenomena on the Polish stock exchange market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(27), pages 6801-6811.
  9. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
  10. Jozef Barunik & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2012. "On Hurst exponent estimation under heavy-tailed distributions," Papers 1201.4786, arXiv.org.
  11. Domino, Krzysztof, 2012. "The use of the Hurst exponent to investigate the global maximum of the Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG20 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 156-169.
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Cited by:
  1. Todea, Alexandru & Pleşoianu, Anita, 2013. "The influence of foreign portfolio investment on informational efficiency: Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 34-41.
  2. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2013. "Measuring capital market efficiency: Global and local correlations structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(1), pages 184-193.
  3. Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2012. "Price and Quantity Trajectories: Second-order Dynamics," Papers 1204.3156, arXiv.org.
  4. Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Aste, Tomaso, 2013. "Non-stationary multifractality in stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6470-6483.
  5. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2013. "Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crisis: Wavelet Power Evidence," Papers 1310.1446, arXiv.org.

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