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True and Apparent Scaling: The Proximity of the Markov- Switching Multifractal Model to Long-Range Dependence

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  • Liu, Ruipeng
  • Di Matteo, Tiziana
  • Lux, Thomas

Abstract

In this paper, we consider daily financial data of a collection of different stock market indices, exchange rates, and interest rates, and we analyze their multi-scaling properties by estimating a simple specification of the Markov- switching multifractal model (MSM). In order to see how well the estimated models capture the temporal dependence of the data, we estimate and compare the scaling exponents H(q) (for q = 1; 2) for both empirical data and simulated data of the estimated MSM models. In most cases the multifractal model appears to generate `apparent' long memory in agreement with the empirical scaling laws. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2007,06.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5534

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Keywords: Scaling; Generalized Hurst exponent; Multifractal model; GMM estimation;

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  1. Calvet, Laurent & Fisher, Adlai, 2001. "Forecasting multifractal volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 27-58, November.
  2. Thierry Roncalli & Gael Riboulet & Ashkan Nikeghbali & Vado Durrleman & Erick Bouy?, 2001. "Copulas: an Open Field for Risk Management," Working Papers wp01-01, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  3. Reiner Franke & Simone Alfarano, 2007. "A Simple Asymmetric Herding Model to Distinguish Between Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers wp07-01, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  4. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Malo, Pekka, 2009. "Modeling electricity spot and futures price dependence: A multifrequency approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(22), pages 4763-4779.
  2. Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Aste, Tomaso, 2013. "Non-stationary multifractality in stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6470-6483.
  3. Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Gramatica, Ruggero & Aste, Tomaso, 2012. "Dynamical generalized Hurst exponent as a tool to monitor unstable periods in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3180-3189.
  4. Mulligan, Robert F., 2014. "Multifractality of sectoral price indices: Hurst signature analysis of Cantillon effects in disequilibrium factor markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 252-264.
  5. Jozef Barunik & Tomaso Aste & Tiziana Di Matteo & Ruipeng Liu, 2012. "Understanding the source of multifractality in financial markets," Papers 1201.1535, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2012.
  6. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Dengshi, 2011. "A copula–multifractal volatility hedging model for CSI 300 index futures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4260-4272.
  7. Pakrashi, Vikram & Kelly, Joe & Harkin, Julie & Farrell, Aidan, 2013. "Hurst exponent footprints from activities on a large structural system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1803-1817.
  8. Thomas Lux & Leonardo Morales-Arias & Cristina Sattarhoff, 2011. "A Markov-switching Multifractal Approach to Forecasting Realized Volatility," Kiel Working Papers 1737, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Raffaello Morales & T. Di Matteo & Ruggero Gramatica & Tomaso Aste, 2011. "Dynamical Hurst exponent as a tool to monitor unstable periods in financial time series," Papers 1109.0465, arXiv.org.

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