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Application of the largest Lyapunov exponent and non-linear fractal extrapolation algorithm to short-term load forecasting

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  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Jia, Ruiling
  • Zhao, Weigang
  • Wu, Jie
  • Dong, Yao

Abstract

Precise short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in unit commitment, maintenance and economic dispatch problems. Employing a subjective and arbitrary predictive step size is one of the most important factors causing the low forecasting accuracy. To solve this problem, the largest Lyapunov exponent is adopted to estimate the maximal predictive step size so that the step size in the forecasting is no more than this maximal one. In addition, in this paper a seldom used forecasting model, which is based on the non-linear fractal extrapolation (NLFE) algorithm, is considered to develop the accuracy of predictions. The suitability and superiority of the two solutions are illustrated through an application to real load forecasting using New South Wales electricity load data from the Australian National Electricity Market. Meanwhile, three forecasting models: the gray model, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average approach and the support vector machine method, which received high approval in STLF, are selected to compare with the NLFE algorithm. Comparison results also show that the NLFE model is outstanding, effective, practical and feasible.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jianzhou & Jia, Ruiling & Zhao, Weigang & Wu, Jie & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of the largest Lyapunov exponent and non-linear fractal extrapolation algorithm to short-term load forecasting," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1277-1287.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:45:y:2012:i:9:p:1277-1287
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2012.06.009
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cheng-Hong Yang & Po-Yin Chang, 2020. "Forecasting the Demand for Container Throughput Using a Mixed-Precision Neural Architecture Based on CNN–LSTM," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "A study on chaos in crude oil markets before and after 2008 international financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 389-395.
    4. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "On fractality and chaos in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 29-39.
    5. Xiu, Chunbo & Wang, Tiantian & Tian, Meng & Li, Yanqing & Cheng, Yi, 2014. "Short-term prediction method of wind speed series based on fractal interpolation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 89-97.
    6. Li, Wei-Qin & Chang, Li, 2018. "A combination model with variable weight optimization for short-term electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 575-593.
    7. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
    8. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "Investigating existence of chaos in short and long term dynamics of Moroccan exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 655-661.
    9. Wang, Deyun & Yue, Chenqiang & ElAmraoui, Adnen, 2021. "Multi-step-ahead electricity load forecasting using a novel hybrid architecture with decomposition-based error correction strategy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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