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Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? Studying credit demand in China

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  • Koivu, Tuuli
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    Abstract

    Abstract Chinese authorities have traditionally relied mainly on administrative and quantitative measures in conducting monetary policy, with interest rates playing a less prominent role. Additional support for this view resides in a number of earlier studies that have found that the impact of interest rates on the real economy has been miniscule. However, taking into account numerous reforms in the financial sector and more widely in the Chinese economy, interest rates may have gained some influence in the last few years. It is important to study the effectiveness of interest rates also in light of future reforms of the monetary policy tools in China. Whereas administrative policy measures were effective in guiding the behaviour of state-owned enterprises, the authorities may need to increase the use of more market-oriented monetary policy tools as the share of the economy in private and foreign ownership grows. We use a vector error correction model to study, within a credit demand framework, whether the impact of interest rates in China has become stronger over the last decade. Our results suggest that loan demand has indeed become more dependent on interest rates, albeit the channel from interest rates to the real economy is still weak.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 455-470

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:455-470

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco

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    Keywords: China Monetary economics;

    References

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    1. Bernard Laurens & Rodolfo Maino, 2007. "China," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.
    3. Fung, Michael Ka-Yiu & Ho, Wai-Ming & Zhu, Lijing, 2000. "The Impact of Credit Control and Interest Rate Regulation on the Transforming Chinese Economy: An Analysis of Long-Run Effects," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 293-320, June.
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    7. Richard Podpiera, 2006. "Progress in China'S Banking Sector Reform," IMF Working Papers 06/71, International Monetary Fund.
    8. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    9. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1991. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," NBER Working Papers 3892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guang Hua, 2002. "Household consumption and monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-52.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
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    Cited by:
    1. Chen, Jeff Zeyun & Lobo, Gerald J. & Wang, Yanyan & Yu, Lisheng, 2013. "Loan collateral and financial reporting conservatism: Chinese evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4989-5006.
    2. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    3. Tervala, Juha, 2014. "China, the Dollar Peg and U.S. Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 53223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    5. repec:wyi:journl:002133 is not listed on IDEAS

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