IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v75y2021ics1049007821000671.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's money demand in a cointegrating vector error correction model

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Xiaohong
  • Wohlfarth, Paul
  • Smith, Ron P.

Abstract

This paper estimates open-economy macroeconomic models of the Chinese economy allowing for the structural change caused by the 1992 reforms. Unrestricted vector autoregressions, VARs, and cointegrating vector error correction models, VECMs, are estimated on quarterly data for the early reform period 1980–1992, and the late reform period, 1993–2018. Two long-run cointegrating vectors are identified, which can be interpreted as a long-run, money demand function and a long-run IS type income equation driven by export demand. The 1992 reforms involved a move to a more market oriented system and a transformation of financial institutions and this seems to be responsible for a change in the direction of effect of interest rates in both the IS and LM relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Xiaohong & Wohlfarth, Paul & Smith, Ron P., 2021. "China's money demand in a cointegrating vector error correction model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:75:y:2021:i:c:s1049007821000671
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007821000671
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101338?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Carsten Holz, 2014. "Explaining money demand in China during the transition from a centrally planned to a market-based monetary system," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 376-400, September.
    2. Qin, Duo, 1994. "Money demand in China: The effect of economic reform," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 253-271.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "How Stable Is The Demand For Money In China?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 21-33, June.
    4. Schinckus, Christophe & Altukhov, Yurii A. & Pokrovskii, Vladimir N., 2018. "Empirical justification of the elementary model of money circulation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 493(C), pages 228-238.
    5. S. Deng & B. Liu, 1999. "Modelling and forecasting the money demand in China: Cointegration and non‐linearanalysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 87(0), pages 177-189, April.
    6. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May.
    7. Jiadan Jiang, 2016. "Modeling Money Demand in China: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-8, June.
    8. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May.
    9. Berger, Allen N. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhou, Mingming, 2009. "Bank ownership and efficiency in China: What will happen in the world's largest nation?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 113-130, January.
    10. Balassa, Bela, 1989. "Financial liberalization in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 55, The World Bank.
    11. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohd, Siti Hamizah & Yol, Marial Awou, 2009. "Stock prices and demand for money in China: New evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 171-187, February.
    12. Chen, Chien-Hsun, 1989. "Monetary aggregates and macroeconomic performance in Mainland China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 314-324, June.
    13. Chow, Gregory C., 1987. "Money and price level determination in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 319-333, September.
    14. Chen, Baizhu, 1997. "Long-Run Money Demand and Inflation in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 609-617, July.
    15. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "Money demand function versus monetary integration: Revisiting panel cointegration among GCC countries," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 85-93.
    16. Aaron Mehrotra, 2008. "Demand for Money in Transition: Evidence from China’s Disinflation," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 36-47, February.
    17. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, Decembrie.
    18. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    19. Xiangsheng Dou, 2018. "The determinants of money demand in China," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1564422-156, January.
    20. Tan, Yong & Floros, Christos, 2018. "Risk, competition and efficiency in banking: Evidence from China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 223-236.
    21. M. Mukherjee, 1967. "The Role Of Transactions In Kind In Developing Economies," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 13(4), pages 335-351, December.
    22. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    23. Ge Wu, 2009. "Broad Money Demand and Asset Substitution in China," IMF Working Papers 2009/131, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    2. repec:wyi:journl:002133 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Carsten Holz, 2014. "Explaining money demand in China during the transition from a centrally planned to a market-based monetary system," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 376-400, September.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_027 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Carsten Holz, 2014. "Explaining money demand in China during the transition from a centrally planned to a market-based monetary system," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 376-400, September.
    6. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Holz, Carsten, 2013. "Understanding Money Demand in the Transition from a Centrally Planned to a Market Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "How Stable Is The Demand For Money In China?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 21-33, June.
    8. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    9. Yu, Qiao, 1997. "Economic Fluctuation, Macro Control, and Monetary Policy in the Transitional Chinese Economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 180-195, October.
    10. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohd, Siti Hamizah & Mansur M. Masih, A., 2009. "The stability of money demand in China: Evidence from the ARDL model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 231-244, September.
    11. Helmi Hamdi & Ali Said & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Money Demand Function in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 603-612.
    12. Morgan, Horatio M., 2013. "The Political Economy of Trade-Financial Liberalization and Financial Underdevelopment: A perspective from China," MPRA Paper 50031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Yin Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2004. "Output and Price Fluctuations in China's Reform Years: What Role did Money Play?," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-56, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Signe Rosenberg, 2015. "The Impact of a Change in Real Estate Value on Private Consumption in Estonia," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 7(2).
    16. Mr. Jahangir Aziz & Li Cui, 2007. "Explaining China’s Low Consumption: The Neglected Role of Household Income," IMF Working Papers 2007/181, International Monetary Fund.
    17. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:36-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2015. "Dynamic steam coal market integration: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 510-520.
    19. M. Aubry & P. Renou-Maissant, 2013. "Investigating the semiconductor industry cycles," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(21), pages 3058-3067, July.
    20. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    21. Nidhal Mgadmi & Helmi Hamdi & Houssem Rachdi, 2016. "Non-Linear Modelling of Money Demand in Tunisia: Evidence from the STAR Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1975-1985.
    22. Lin, Boqiang & Xu, Bin, 2018. "How to promote the growth of new energy industry at different stages?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 390-403.
    23. Mr. Leslie Lipschitz & Ms. Genevieve Verdier & Ms. Celine Rochon, 2008. "A Real Model of Transitional Growth and Competitiveness in China," IMF Working Papers 2008/099, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; Cointegration; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:75:y:2021:i:c:s1049007821000671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.