Exploring the design space of PV-plus-battery system configurations under evolving grid conditions

In this study, we explore how the energy and capacity values of coupled systems comprising solar photovoltaic arrays and battery storage (PV-plus-battery systems) could evolve over time based on the evolution of the bulk power system. Using a price-taker model with simulated hourly energy and capacity prices projected from the present to 2050, we simulate the revenue-maximizing dispatch of a range of DC-coupled PV-plus-battery configurations in three locations in the United States. These configurations are defined by the inverter loading ratio (ILR, the ratio of the PV array capacity to the inverter capacity, which we vary from 1.4 to 2.6) and the battery-inverter ratio (BIR, the ratio of the battery power capacity to the inverter capacity, which we vary from 0.25 to 1.0). Based on each configuration’s total value, we estimate the breakeven costs needed to justify each incremental increase in ILR (holding BIR constant) or BIR (holding ILR constant). We find that, in a future with low-cost renewable energy technologies, PV-plus-battery system ILRs can be economically increased to around 2.0–2.4 at a BIR of 1.0, depending on solar resource. Our results indicate that a likely evolution of PV-plus-battery system design will be increasingly greater battery power capacity to mitigate the declining PV capacity value, which will, in turn, enable increasingly higher ILRs to further increase energy value. The extent to which PV-plus-systems will be deployed with increasingly higher ILRs depends primarily on whether PV cost declines outpace declining value and increasing curtailment over time.