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Modeling China’s interprovincial coal transportation under low carbon transition

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  • Li, Nan
  • Chen, Wenying

Abstract

Coal transportation plays an important role in the coordinated development of China’s provinces. To analyze changes in China’s interprovincial coal transportation and corresponding emissions under China’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Well Below 2 degrees target, this study develops a 30-province energy system optimization model (China TIMES-30P) to simulate three low carbon scenarios, including PEAK2030 (Emissions peak at 2030), PEAKA (Emissions peak before 2030) and WBD2 (Well below 2 degrees). The low carbon development will lead to the reduction of coal transportation to 1114,728 and 653 Mtce in 2050 (48%, 66% and 69% lower than the reference scenario) under the PEAK2030, PEAKA and WBD2 scenarios. Meanwhile, the overall coal transportation pattern will be simplified and concentrated. These will cause the decrease of the corresponding freight turnover to 1337, 887,787 billion tkm in 2050 (44%, 63%, 67% lower than the reference) under the PEAK2030, PEAKA and WBD2 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, low carbon transition will also promote the transformation of power generation structure, contributing to the drop of the emission per unit of freight turnover of coal transportation to 3.00, 1.61, 0.52 kt CO2/btkm in 2050 under the PEAK2030, PEAKA and WBD2 scenarios. Owing to the decrease of coal transportation amount, transportation distance and the emission coefficients of coal transportation, cumulative emissions from coal transportation for the period 2010 to 2050 are estimated to be 28%, 48% and 64% lower than the reference scenario in the PEAK2030, PEAKA and WBD2, respectively.

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  • Li, Nan & Chen, Wenying, 2018. "Modeling China’s interprovincial coal transportation under low carbon transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 267-279.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:222:y:2018:i:c:p:267-279
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modeling of energy transformation pathways under current policies, NDCs and enhanced NDCs to achieve 2-degree target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 549-557.
    3. Qiu, Shuo & Lei, Tian & Wu, Jiangtao & Bi, Shengshan, 2021. "Energy demand and supply planning of China through 2060," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    4. Wen, Wen & Feng, Cuiyang & Zhou, Hao & Zhang, Li & Wu, Xiaohui & Qi, Jianchuan & Yang, Xuechun & Liang, Yuhan, 2021. "Critical provincial transmission sectors for carbon dioxide emissions in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
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    6. Shengzhong Zhang & Yingmin Yu & Qihong Zhu & Chun Martin Qiu & Aixuan Tian, 2020. "Green Innovation Mode under Carbon Tax and Innovation Subsidy: An Evolutionary Game Analysis for Portfolio Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, February.

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