IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v211y2018icp15-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Day-ahead spatio-temporal forecasting of solar irradiation along a navigation route

Author

Listed:
  • Lan, Hai
  • Yin, He
  • Hong, Ying-Yi
  • Wen, Shuli
  • Yu, David C.
  • Cheng, Peng

Abstract

Owing to a shortage of fossil fuels and environmental pollution, renewable energy is gradually replacing fossil fuels in the power systems of hybrid ships. To exploit fully solar energy by the successful day-ahead scheduling of ships, this work proposes a new day-ahead spatio-temporal forecasting method. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is used to extract data features and decompose original historical data into several frequency bands. After the original data are processed, data from the four land weather stations that are closest to the ship and self-organizing map-back propagation (SOM-BP) hybrid neural networks are used to forecast the solar radiation received by the ship in the next 24 h. Multiple comparative experiments are implemented. The results show that the EEMD-SOM-BP spatio-temporal forecasting method can accurately forecast the solar radiation on a ship that is sailing along a navigation route.

Suggested Citation

  • Lan, Hai & Yin, He & Hong, Ying-Yi & Wen, Shuli & Yu, David C. & Cheng, Peng, 2018. "Day-ahead spatio-temporal forecasting of solar irradiation along a navigation route," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 15-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:211:y:2018:i:c:p:15-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.11.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917315945
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.11.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guo, Zhenhai & Zhao, Weigang & Lu, Haiyan & Wang, Jianzhou, 2012. "Multi-step forecasting for wind speed using a modified EMD-based artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 241-249.
    2. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    3. Yang, Dazhi & Gu, Chaojun & Dong, Zibo & Jirutitijaroen, Panida & Chen, Nan & Walsh, Wilfred M., 2013. "Solar irradiance forecasting using spatial-temporal covariance structures and time-forward kriging," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 235-245.
    4. Sun, Shaolong & Qiao, Han & Wei, Yunjie & Wang, Shouyang, 2017. "A new dynamic integrated approach for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 151-162.
    5. Ren, Ye & Suganthan, P.N. & Srikanth, N., 2015. "Ensemble methods for wind and solar power forecasting—A state-of-the-art review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 82-91.
    6. Dong, Zibo & Yang, Dazhi & Reindl, Thomas & Walsh, Wilfred M., 2015. "A novel hybrid approach based on self-organizing maps, support vector regression and particle swarm optimization to forecast solar irradiance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 570-577.
    7. André, Maïna & Dabo-Niang, Sophie & Soubdhan, Ted & Ould-Baba, Hanany, 2016. "Predictive spatio-temporal model for spatially sparse global solar radiation data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 599-608.
    8. C. A. Glasbey & D. J. Allcroft, 2008. "A spatiotemporal auto‐regressive moving average model for solar radiation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(3), pages 343-355, June.
    9. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2010. "On comparing three artificial neural networks for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2313-2320, July.
    10. Li, Yanting & He, Yong & Su, Yan & Shu, Lianjie, 2016. "Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 392-401.
    11. Ferlito, S. & Adinolfi, G. & Graditi, G., 2017. "Comparative analysis of data-driven methods online and offline trained to the forecasting of grid-connected photovoltaic plant production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 116-129.
    12. Dambreville, Romain & Blanc, Philippe & Chanussot, Jocelyn & Boldo, Didier, 2014. "Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 291-300.
    13. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Wen, Xiaohu & Qi, Feng, 2016. "A wavelet-coupled support vector machine model for forecasting global incident solar radiation using limited meteorological dataset," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 568-593.
    14. Monjoly, Stéphanie & André, Maïna & Calif, Rudy & Soubdhan, Ted, 2017. "Hourly forecasting of global solar radiation based on multiscale decomposition methods: A hybrid approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 288-298.
    15. Sharma, Vishal & Yang, Dazhi & Walsh, Wilfred & Reindl, Thomas, 2016. "Short term solar irradiance forecasting using a mixed wavelet neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 481-492.
    16. Lee, Kyoung-Jun & Shin, Dongsul & Yoo, Dong-Wook & Choi, Han-Kyu & Kim, Hee-Je, 2013. "Hybrid photovoltaic/diesel green ship operating in standalone and grid-connected mode – Experimental investigation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 475-483.
    17. Foley, Aoife M. & Leahy, Paul G. & Marvuglia, Antonino & McKeogh, Eamon J., 2012. "Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-8.
    18. Feng, Cong & Cui, Mingjian & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Zhang, Jie, 2017. "A data-driven multi-model methodology with deep feature selection for short-term wind forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1245-1257.
    19. Zagouras, Athanassios & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "On the role of lagged exogenous variables and spatio–temporal correlations in improving the accuracy of solar forecasting methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 203-218.
    20. Diagne, Maimouna & David, Mathieu & Lauret, Philippe & Boland, John & Schmutz, Nicolas, 2013. "Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 65-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fu, Wenlong & Fu, Yuchen & Li, Bailing & Zhang, Hairong & Zhang, Xuanrui & Liu, Jiarui, 2023. "A compound framework incorporating improved outlier detection and correction, VMD, weight-based stacked generalization with enhanced DESMA for multi-step short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    2. Liu, Guanjun & Qin, Hui & Shen, Qin & Lyv, Hao & Qu, Yuhua & Fu, Jialong & Liu, Yongqi & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2021. "Probabilistic spatiotemporal solar irradiation forecasting using deep ensembles convolutional shared weight long short-term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    3. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Zhang, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Gao, Bixuan & Liu, Wuming, 2021. "Hybrid deep neural model for hourly solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1041-1060.
    4. Julián Urrego-Ortiz & J. Alejandro Martínez & Paola A. Arias & Álvaro Jaramillo-Duque, 2019. "Assessment and Day-Ahead Forecasting of Hourly Solar Radiation in Medellín, Colombia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-29, November.
    5. Gao, Bixuan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Shi, Junsheng & Tai, Yonghang & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Hourly forecasting of solar irradiance based on CEEMDAN and multi-strategy CNN-LSTM neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1665-1683.
    6. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    7. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "A comparison of day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on deep learning neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Carneiro, Tatiane C. & Rocha, Paulo A.C. & Carvalho, Paulo C.M. & Fernández-Ramírez, Luis M., 2022. "Ridge regression ensemble of machine learning models applied to solar and wind forecasting in Brazil and Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    9. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira, 2022. "Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    10. Liu, Yongqi & Qin, Hui & Zhang, Zhendong & Pei, Shaoqian & Wang, Chao & Yu, Xiang & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2019. "Ensemble spatiotemporal forecasting of solar irradiation using variational Bayesian convolutional gate recurrent unit network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    11. He Yin & Hai Lan & Ying-Yi Hong & Zhuangwei Wang & Peng Cheng & Dan Li & Dong Guo, 2023. "A Comprehensive Review of Shipboard Power Systems with New Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-44, February.
    12. Xu, Lijie & Ji, Jie & Yuan, Chengqing & Cai, Jingyong & Dai, Leyang, 2023. "Electrical and thermal performance of multidimensional semi-transparent CdTe PV window on offshore passenger ships in moored and sailing condition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    2. Lan, Hai & Zhang, Chi & Hong, Ying-Yi & He, Yin & Wen, Shuli, 2019. "Day-ahead spatiotemporal solar irradiation forecasting using frequency-based hybrid principal component analysis and neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 389-402.
    3. Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.
    4. Stéphanie Monjoly & Maina André & Rudy Calif & Ted Soubdhan, 2019. "Forecast Horizon and Solar Variability Influences on the Performances of Multiscale Hybrid Forecast Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira, 2022. "Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    6. Fateh Mehazzem & Maina André & Rudy Calif, 2022. "Efficient Output Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on MPPT Fuzzy Logic Technique and Solar Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Approach in a Tropical Insular Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-21, November.
    7. Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    8. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    9. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2022. "Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise Deep Residual model for short-term multi-step solar radiation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 408-424.
    11. Chiou-Jye Huang & Ping-Huan Kuo, 2018. "A Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Model by Using Artificial Neural Networks with Stochastic Optimization for Renewable Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, October.
    12. Samu, Remember & Calais, Martina & Shafiullah, G.M. & Moghbel, Moayed & Shoeb, Md Asaduzzaman & Nouri, Bijan & Blum, Niklas, 2021. "Applications for solar irradiance nowcasting in the control of microgrids: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Rodríguez, Fermín & Galarza, Ainhoa & Vasquez, Juan C. & Guerrero, Josep M., 2022. "Using deep learning and meteorological parameters to forecast the photovoltaic generators intra-hour output power interval for smart grid control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    14. Theo, Wai Lip & Lim, Jeng Shiun & Ho, Wai Shin & Hashim, Haslenda & Lee, Chew Tin, 2017. "Review of distributed generation (DG) system planning and optimisation techniques: Comparison of numerical and mathematical modelling methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 531-573.
    15. Emeksiz, Cem & Tan, Mustafa, 2022. "Multi-step wind speed forecasting and Hurst analysis using novel hybrid secondary decomposition approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    16. Hoyos-Gómez, Laura S. & Ruiz-Muñoz, Jose F. & Ruiz-Mendoza, Belizza J., 2022. "Short-term forecasting of global solar irradiance in tropical environments with incomplete data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    17. Bisoi, Ranjeeta & Dash, Deepak Ranjan & Dash, P.K. & Tripathy, Lokanath, 2022. "An efficient robust optimized functional link broad learning system for solar irradiance prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    18. Gao, Bixuan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Shi, Junsheng & Tai, Yonghang & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Hourly forecasting of solar irradiance based on CEEMDAN and multi-strategy CNN-LSTM neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1665-1683.
    19. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    20. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A Green Energy Application in Energy Management Systems by an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solar Radiation Forecasting Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:211:y:2018:i:c:p:15-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.