IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i12p4341-d838328.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Llinet Benavides Cesar

    (Departamento de Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartográfica, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros en Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Campus Sur, A-3, Km 7, 28031 Madrid, Spain)

  • Rodrigo Amaro e Silva

    (O.I.E. Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, 06904 Paris, France)

  • Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo

    (Departamento de Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartográfica, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros en Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Campus Sur, A-3, Km 7, 28031 Madrid, Spain)

  • Calimanut-Ionut Cira

    (Departamento de Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartográfica, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros en Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Campus Sur, A-3, Km 7, 28031 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

To better forecast solar variability, spatio-temporal methods exploit spatially distributed solar time series, seeking to improve forecasting accuracy by including neighboring solar information. This review work is, to the authors’ understanding, the first to offer a compendium of references published since 2011 on such approaches for global horizontal irradiance and photovoltaic generation. The identified bibliography was categorized according to different parameters (method, data sources, baselines, performance metrics, forecasting horizon), and associated statistics were explored. Lastly, general findings are outlined, and suggestions for future research are provided based on the identification of less explored methods and data sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Llinet Benavides Cesar & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira, 2022. "Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:12:p:4341-:d:838328
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/12/4341/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/12/4341/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    2. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Das, Utpal Kumar & Tey, Kok Soon & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Mekhilef, Saad & Idris, Moh Yamani Idna & Van Deventer, Willem & Horan, Bend & Stojcevski, Alex, 2018. "Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 912-928.
    4. Seungbeom Nam & Jin Hur, 2018. "Probabilistic Forecasting Model of Solar Power Outputs Based on the Naïve Bayes Classifier and Kriging Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Liu, Guanjun & Qin, Hui & Shen, Qin & Lyv, Hao & Qu, Yuhua & Fu, Jialong & Liu, Yongqi & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2021. "Probabilistic spatiotemporal solar irradiation forecasting using deep ensembles convolutional shared weight long short-term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    6. Lan, Hai & Yin, He & Hong, Ying-Yi & Wen, Shuli & Yu, David C. & Cheng, Peng, 2018. "Day-ahead spatio-temporal forecasting of solar irradiation along a navigation route," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 15-27.
    7. Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M. & David, Mathieu & Lauret, Philippe, 2018. "Assessment of machine learning techniques for deterministic and probabilistic intra-hour solar forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 191-203.
    8. Yang, Dazhi & Gu, Chaojun & Dong, Zibo & Jirutitijaroen, Panida & Chen, Nan & Walsh, Wilfred M., 2013. "Solar irradiance forecasting using spatial-temporal covariance structures and time-forward kriging," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 235-245.
    9. Xwégnon Ghislain Agoua & Robin Girard & Georges Kariniotakis, 2021. "Photovoltaic Power Forecasting: Assessment of the Impact of Multiple Sources of Spatio-Temporal Data on Forecast Accuracy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Dambreville, Romain & Blanc, Philippe & Chanussot, Jocelyn & Boldo, Didier, 2014. "Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 291-300.
    11. Gandoman, Foad H. & Abdel Aleem, Shady H.E. & Omar, Noshin & Ahmadi, Abdollah & Alenezi, Faisal Q., 2018. "Short-term solar power forecasting considering cloud coverage and ambient temperature variation effects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 793-805.
    12. Rafael E. Carrillo & Martin Leblanc & Baptiste Schubnel & Renaud Langou & Cyril Topfel & Pierre-Jean Alet, 2020. "High-Resolution PV Forecasting from Imperfect Data: A Graph-Based Solution," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Severiano, Carlos A. & Silva, Petrônio Cândido de Lima e & Weiss Cohen, Miri & Guimarães, Frederico Gadelha, 2021. "Evolving fuzzy time series for spatio-temporal forecasting in renewable energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 764-783.
    14. Tao Hong & Pierre Pinson & Yi Wang & Rafal Weron & Dazhi Yang & Hamidreza Zareipour, 2020. "Energy forecasting: A review and outlook," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/20/08, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    15. Chen, Xiaoyang & Du, Yang & Lim, Enggee & Wen, Huiqing & Jiang, Lin, 2019. "Sensor network based PV power nowcasting with spatio-temporal preselection for grid-friendly control," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    16. Lan, Hai & Zhang, Chi & Hong, Ying-Yi & He, Yin & Wen, Shuli, 2019. "Day-ahead spatiotemporal solar irradiation forecasting using frequency-based hybrid principal component analysis and neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 389-402.
    17. Chen Wang & Jie Wu & Jianzhou Wang & Zhongjin Hu, 2016. "Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using the Data Processing Approach and the Support Vector Machine Model Optimized by the Improved Cuckoo Search Parameter Estimation Algorithm," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-17, July.
    18. Amaro e Silva, R. & Brito, M.C., 2019. "Spatio-temporal PV forecasting sensitivity to modules’ tilt and orientation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    19. André, Maïna & Dabo-Niang, Sophie & Soubdhan, Ted & Ould-Baba, Hanany, 2016. "Predictive spatio-temporal model for spatially sparse global solar radiation data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 599-608.
    20. Amrouche, Badia & Le Pivert, Xavier, 2014. "Artificial neural network based daily local forecasting for global solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 333-341.
    21. Nam, SeungBeom & Hur, Jin, 2019. "A hybrid spatio-temporal forecasting of solar generating resources for grid integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 503-510.
    22. Sharma, Vishal & Yang, Dazhi & Walsh, Wilfred & Reindl, Thomas, 2016. "Short term solar irradiance forecasting using a mixed wavelet neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 481-492.
    23. Liu, Yongqi & Qin, Hui & Zhang, Zhendong & Pei, Shaoqian & Wang, Chao & Yu, Xiang & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2019. "Ensemble spatiotemporal forecasting of solar irradiation using variational Bayesian convolutional gate recurrent unit network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    24. Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    25. Myeongchan Oh & Chang Ki Kim & Boyoung Kim & Changyeol Yun & Yong-Heack Kang & Hyun-Goo Kim, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Optimization for Short-Term Solar Forecasting Based on Satellite Imagery," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, April.
    26. van der Meer, D.W. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1484-1512.
    27. Jaeik Jeong & Hongseok Kim, 2019. "Multi-Site Photovoltaic Forecasting Exploiting Space-Time Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
    28. Gabriel Mendonça de Paiva & Sergio Pires Pimentel & Bernardo Pinheiro Alvarenga & Enes Gonçalves Marra & Marco Mussetta & Sonia Leva, 2020. "Multiple Site Intraday Solar Irradiance Forecasting by Machine Learning Algorithms: MGGP and MLP Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-28, June.
    29. Aguiar, L. Mazorra & Pereira, B. & Lauret, P. & Díaz, F. & David, M., 2016. "Combining solar irradiance measurements, satellite-derived data and a numerical weather prediction model to improve intra-day solar forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 599-610.
    30. Vaz, A.G.R. & Elsinga, B. & van Sark, W.G.J.H.M. & Brito, M.C., 2016. "An artificial neural network to assess the impact of neighbouring photovoltaic systems in power forecasting in Utrecht, the Netherlands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 631-641.
    31. Boland, John, 2015. "Spatial-temporal forecasting of solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 607-616.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira & Ramon Alcarria, 2023. "CyL-GHI: Global Horizontal Irradiance Dataset Containing 18 Years of Refined Data at 30-Min Granularity from 37 Stations Located in Castile and León (Spain)," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He Yin & Hai Lan & Ying-Yi Hong & Zhuangwei Wang & Peng Cheng & Dan Li & Dong Guo, 2023. "A Comprehensive Review of Shipboard Power Systems with New Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-44, February.
    2. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Chen, Xiaoyang & Du, Yang & Lim, Enggee & Fang, Lurui & Yan, Ke, 2022. "Towards the applicability of solar nowcasting: A practice on predictive PV power ramp-rate control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 147-166.
    4. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Zhang, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Gao, Bixuan & Liu, Wuming, 2021. "Hybrid deep neural model for hourly solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1041-1060.
    5. Lan, Hai & Yin, He & Hong, Ying-Yi & Wen, Shuli & Yu, David C. & Cheng, Peng, 2018. "Day-ahead spatio-temporal forecasting of solar irradiation along a navigation route," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 15-27.
    6. Gao, Bixuan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Shi, Junsheng & Tai, Yonghang & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Hourly forecasting of solar irradiance based on CEEMDAN and multi-strategy CNN-LSTM neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1665-1683.
    7. Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    8. Lan, Hai & Zhang, Chi & Hong, Ying-Yi & He, Yin & Wen, Shuli, 2019. "Day-ahead spatiotemporal solar irradiation forecasting using frequency-based hybrid principal component analysis and neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 389-402.
    9. Rodríguez, Fermín & Galarza, Ainhoa & Vasquez, Juan C. & Guerrero, Josep M., 2022. "Using deep learning and meteorological parameters to forecast the photovoltaic generators intra-hour output power interval for smart grid control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    10. Zhao, Wei & Zhang, Haoran & Zheng, Jianqin & Dai, Yuanhao & Huang, Liqiao & Shang, Wenlong & Liang, Yongtu, 2021. "A point prediction method based automatic machine learning for day-ahead power output of multi-region photovoltaic plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    11. Lima, Marcello Anderson F.B. & Carvalho, Paulo C.M. & Fernández-Ramírez, Luis M. & Braga, Arthur P.S., 2020. "Improving solar forecasting using Deep Learning and Portfolio Theory integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    12. Fateh Mehazzem & Maina André & Rudy Calif, 2022. "Efficient Output Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on MPPT Fuzzy Logic Technique and Solar Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Approach in a Tropical Insular Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-21, November.
    13. AlSkaif, Tarek & Dev, Soumyabrata & Visser, Lennard & Hossari, Murhaf & van Sark, Wilfried, 2020. "A systematic analysis of meteorological variables for PV output power estimation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 12-22.
    14. Zhou, Yi & Zhou, Nanrun & Gong, Lihua & Jiang, Minlin, 2020. "Prediction of photovoltaic power output based on similar day analysis, genetic algorithm and extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    15. Marchesoni-Acland, Franco & Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo, 2020. "Intra-day solar irradiation forecast using RLS filters and satellite images," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1140-1154.
    16. Alonso-Suárez, R. & David, M. & Branco, V. & Lauret, P., 2020. "Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 554-573.
    17. Zheng, Jianqin & Zhang, Haoran & Dai, Yuanhao & Wang, Bohong & Zheng, Taicheng & Liao, Qi & Liang, Yongtu & Zhang, Fengwei & Song, Xuan, 2020. "Time series prediction for output of multi-region solar power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    18. Armando Castillejo-Cuberos & John Boland & Rodrigo Escobar, 2021. "Short-Term Deterministic Solar Irradiance Forecasting Considering a Heuristics-Based, Operational Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-24, September.
    19. Hugo Bezerra Menezes Leite & Hamidreza Zareipour, 2023. "Six Days Ahead Forecasting of Energy Production of Small Behind-the-Meter Solar Sites," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, February.
    20. Victor Hugo Wentz & Joylan Nunes Maciel & Jorge Javier Gimenez Ledesma & Oswaldo Hideo Ando Junior, 2022. "Solar Irradiance Forecasting to Short-Term PV Power: Accuracy Comparison of ANN and LSTM Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:12:p:4341-:d:838328. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.