IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v205y2017icp654-669.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

Author

Listed:
  • Lusis, Peter
  • Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab
  • Andrew, Lachlan
  • Liebman, Ariel

Abstract

Literature is rich in methodologies for “aggregated” load forecasting which has helped electricity network operators and retailers in optimal planning and scheduling. The recent increase in the uptake of distributed generation and storage systems has generated new demand for “disaggregated” load forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads.

Suggested Citation

  • Lusis, Peter & Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab & Andrew, Lachlan & Liebman, Ariel, 2017. "Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 654-669.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:205:y:2017:i:c:p:654-669
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.07.114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917309881
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.07.114?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sandels, C. & Widén, J. & Nordström, L., 2014. "Forecasting household consumer electricity load profiles with a combined physical and behavioral approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 267-278.
    2. Jain, Rishee K. & Smith, Kevin M. & Culligan, Patricia J. & Taylor, John E., 2014. "Forecasting energy consumption of multi-family residential buildings using support vector regression: Investigating the impact of temporal and spatial monitoring granularity on performance accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 168-178.
    3. Kavaklioglu, Kadir, 2011. "Modeling and prediction of Turkey's electricity consumption using Support Vector Regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 368-375, January.
    4. Javed, Fahad & Arshad, Naveed & Wallin, Fredrik & Vassileva, Iana & Dahlquist, Erik, 2012. "Forecasting for demand response in smart grids: An analysis on use of anthropologic and structural data and short term multiple loads forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 150-160.
    5. Wright, Andrew & Firth, Steven, 2007. "The nature of domestic electricity-loads and effects of time averaging on statistics and on-site generation calculations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(4), pages 389-403, April.
    6. Pascual, Julio & Barricarte, Javier & Sanchis, Pablo & Marroyo, Luis, 2015. "Energy management strategy for a renewable-based residential microgrid with generation and demand forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 12-25.
    7. Liu, Nian & Tang, Qingfeng & Zhang, Jianhua & Fan, Wei & Liu, Jie, 2014. "A hybrid forecasting model with parameter optimization for short-term load forecasting of micro-grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 336-345.
    8. Li, Ran & Wang, Zhimin & Gu, Chenghong & Li, Furong & Wu, Hao, 2016. "A novel time-of-use tariff design based on Gaussian Mixture Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1530-1536.
    9. McKenna, Eoghan & Thomson, Murray, 2016. "High-resolution stochastic integrated thermal–electrical domestic demand model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 445-461.
    10. Beccali, M. & Cellura, M. & Lo Brano, V. & Marvuglia, A., 2008. "Short-term prediction of household electricity consumption: Assessing weather sensitivity in a Mediterranean area," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(8), pages 2040-2065, October.
    11. Azadeh, A. & Ghaderi, S.F. & Sohrabkhani, S., 2008. "A simulated-based neural network algorithm for forecasting electrical energy consumption in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2637-2644, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Liang, Tulu & Wang, Chen, 2016. "A combined model based on multiple seasonal patterns and modified firefly algorithm for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 135-153.
    2. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Kequan & Lu, Haiyan, 2016. "Research and application of a hybrid model based on multi-objective optimization for electrical load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 213-233.
    3. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    4. Jiang, Ping & Liu, Feng & Song, Yiliao, 2017. "A hybrid forecasting model based on date-framework strategy and improved feature selection technology for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 694-709.
    5. Coelho, Vitor N. & Coelho, Igor M. & Coelho, Bruno N. & Reis, Agnaldo J.R. & Enayatifar, Rasul & Souza, Marcone J.F. & Guimarães, Frederico G., 2016. "A self-adaptive evolutionary fuzzy model for load forecasting problems on smart grid environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 567-584.
    6. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    7. Ahmad, Tanveer & Chen, Huanxin, 2019. "Deep learning for multi-scale smart energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 98-112.
    8. Kwonsik Song & Kyle Anderson & SangHyun Lee & Kaitlin T. Raimi & P. Sol Hart, 2020. "Non-Invasive Behavioral Reference Group Categorization Considering Temporal Granularity and Aggregation Level of Energy Use Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-21, July.
    9. Fuentes, E. & Arce, L. & Salom, J., 2018. "A review of domestic hot water consumption profiles for application in systems and buildings energy performance analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1530-1547.
    10. Alobaidi, Mohammad H. & Chebana, Fateh & Meguid, Mohamed A., 2018. "Robust ensemble learning framework for day-ahead forecasting of household based energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 997-1012.
    11. Yang, YouLong & Che, JinXing & Li, YanYing & Zhao, YanJun & Zhu, SuLing, 2016. "An incremental electric load forecasting model based on support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 796-808.
    12. Di Piazza, A. & Di Piazza, M.C. & La Tona, G. & Luna, M., 2021. "An artificial neural network-based forecasting model of energy-related time series for electrical grid management," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 294-305.
    13. Che, JinXing & Wang, JianZhou, 2014. "Short-term load forecasting using a kernel-based support vector regression combination model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 602-609.
    14. Ardakani, F.J. & Ardehali, M.M., 2014. "Long-term electrical energy consumption forecasting for developing and developed economies based on different optimized models and historical data types," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 452-461.
    15. Manfren, Massimiliano & Caputo, Paola & Costa, Gaia, 2011. "Paradigm shift in urban energy systems through distributed generation: Methods and models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1032-1048, April.
    16. Kaytez, Fazil, 2020. "A hybrid approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average and least-square support vector machine for long-term forecasting of net electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    17. Feng, Yonghan & Ryan, Sarah M., 2016. "Day-ahead hourly electricity load modeling by functional regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 455-465.
    18. Trotter, Ian Michael & Féres, José Gustavo & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & de Hollanda, Lavínia Rocha, 2015. "Simulating Brazilian Electricity Demand Under Climate Change Scenarios," Working Papers in Applied Economics 208689, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Departamento de Economia Rural.
    19. Wang, Shuai & Yu, Lean & Tang, Ling & Wang, Shouyang, 2011. "A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6542-6554.
    20. Nick MacMackin, & Miller, Lindsay & Carriveau, Rupp, 2019. "Modeling and disaggregating hourly effects of weather on sectoral electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:205:y:2017:i:c:p:654-669. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.