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The good, the bad and the ugly on COVID-19 tourism recovery

Author

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  • Fotiadis, Anestis
  • Polyzos, Stathis
  • Huan, Tzung-Cheng T.C.

Abstract

This paper is to produce different scenarios in forecasts for international tourism demand, in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. By implementing two distinct methodologies (the Long Short Term Memory neural network and the Generalized Additive Model), based on recent crises, we are able to calculate the expected drop in the international tourist arrivals for the next 12 months. We use a rolling-window testing strategy to calculate accuracy metrics and show that even though all models have comparable accuracy, the forecasts produced vary significantly according to the training data set, a finding that should be alarming to researchers. Our results indicate that the drop in tourist arrivals can range between 30.8% and 76.3% and will persist at least until June 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Fotiadis, Anestis & Polyzos, Stathis & Huan, Tzung-Cheng T.C., 2021. "The good, the bad and the ugly on COVID-19 tourism recovery," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:87:y:2021:i:c:s0160738320302619
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2020.103117
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; Tourism demand; Deep learning; Generalized additive model; Pandemia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • P46 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development

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