IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v266y2022ics037837742200097x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future climate change impacts on mulched maize production in an arid irrigation area

Author

Listed:
  • Quan, Hao
  • Ding, Dianyuan
  • Wu, Lihong
  • Qiao, Ruonan
  • Dong, Qin'ge
  • Zhang, Tibin
  • Feng, Hao
  • Wu, Lianhai
  • Siddique, Kadambot H.M.

Abstract

Future climate change (FCC) and water scarcity significantly affect agricultural production in arid areas. Plastic film mulching (PM) combined with large irrigation amounts is popular for agricultural production in these areas. Crop model is an important tool for studying FCC’s effect on crop production and its countermeasures. In this study, after calibration and validation using measured values from a two-year field experiment, the SPACSYS (v 6.0) and modified DSSAT-CERES-Maize (v 4.7.0.0) models were used to evaluate the implementation of six management systems (three mulching measures: transparent film, black film, no film; two fertilization levels: high, low) and to optimize management measures under FCC. Both models well simulated maize’s anthesis and maturity dates, the final aboveground biomass, yield, and topsoil soil water content (SWC) compared with the measured values. SPACSYS simulated the maize growth and SWC under nitrogen stress better than DSSAT. Total 27 global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive DSSAT and SPACSYS models with different irrigation schemes, including three irrigation amounts (I1, I2, I3) and four irrigation ratios (the proportion of total irrigation amount in different growing stages: T1, T2, T3, T4) to simulate crop phenology and yield under FCC in future decades (2040s and 2080s). Both models advanced the anthesis date (by 8.1–16.2 d in the 2040s and 12.8–20.3 d in the 2080s), maturity date (by 12.7–18.9 d in the 2040s and 19.1–24.8 d in the 2080s), and length of reproductive growth period (by 3.6–6.1 d in the 2040s and 5.8–11.0 d in the 2080s). The I1T1 scenario under transparent film mulching produced the highest yields (12.14–16.07% in the 2040s and 5.36–6.07% in the 2080s higher than the average). The I3T4 scenario maintained stable yields in the 2040s, decreasing by nearly 20% in the 2080s. Consequently, the I3T4 scenario could be the optimal management practice for balancing yield and irrigation for maize production in this arid area in the future decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Quan, Hao & Ding, Dianyuan & Wu, Lihong & Qiao, Ruonan & Dong, Qin'ge & Zhang, Tibin & Feng, Hao & Wu, Lianhai & Siddique, Kadambot H.M., 2022. "Future climate change impacts on mulched maize production in an arid irrigation area," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:266:y:2022:i:c:s037837742200097x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107550
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037837742200097X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107550?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, L. & McGechan, M.B. & McRoberts, N. & Baddeley, J.A. & Watson, C.A., 2007. "SPACSYS: Integration of a 3D root architecture component to carbon, nitrogen and water cycling—Model description," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 343-359.
    2. Dong, Qin’ge & Yang, Yuchen & Zhang, Tinbin & Zhou, Lifeng & He, Jianqiang & Chau, Henry Wai & Zou, Yufeng & Feng, Hao, 2018. "Impacts of ridge with plastic mulch-furrow irrigation on soil salinity, spring maize yield and water use efficiency in an arid saline area," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 268-277.
    3. Li, Su-Yuan & Miao, Li-Juan & Jiang, Zhi-Hong & Wang, Guo-Jie & Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj & Zhang, Jing & Zhang, Hui & Fang, Ke & He, Yu & Li, Chun, 2020. "Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 210-217.
    4. Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Chen, Chao & Liu, De Li & Waters, Cathy & Yu, Qiang, 2019. "Designing wheat ideotypes to cope with future changing climate in South-Eastern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 9-18.
    5. Xiao, Dengpan & Liu, De Li & Feng, Puyu & Wang, Bin & Waters, Cathy & Shen, Yanjun & Qi, Yongqing & Bai, Huizi & Tang, Jianzhao, 2021. "Future climate change impacts on grain yield and groundwater use under different cropping systems in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    6. Gao, Xiaoyu & Bai, Yining & Huo, Zailin & Xu, Xu & Huang, Guanhua & Xia, Yuhong & Steenhuis, Tammo S., 2017. "Deficit irrigation enhances contribution of shallow groundwater to crop water consumption in arid area," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 116-125.
    7. Wang, Xingpeng & Wang, Hongbo & Si, Zhuanyun & Gao, Yang & Duan, Aiwang, 2020. "Modelling responses of cotton growth and yield to pre-planting soil moisture with the CROPGRO-Cotton model for a mulched drip irrigation system in the Tarim Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    8. Deng, Xi-Ping & Shan, Lun & Zhang, Heping & Turner, Neil C., 2006. "Improving agricultural water use efficiency in arid and semiarid areas of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(1-3), pages 23-40, February.
    9. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Ma, Xin & Bai, Hua, 2019. "Evaluation and development of empirical models for estimating daily and monthly mean daily diffuse horizontal solar radiation for different climatic regions of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 168-186.
    10. Hu, Yajin & Ma, Penghui & Duan, Chenxiao & Wu, Shufang & Feng, Hao & Zou, Yufeng, 2020. "Black plastic film combined with straw mulching delays senescence and increases summer maize yield in northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    11. Bai, Yu & Gao, Jinhua, 2021. "Optimization of the nitrogen fertilizer schedule of maize under drip irrigation in Jilin, China, based on DSSAT and GA," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    12. Miroslav Trnka & Reimund P. Rötter & Margarita Ruiz-Ramos & Kurt Christian Kersebaum & Jørgen E. Olesen & Zdeněk Žalud & Mikhail A. Semenov, 2014. "Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 637-643, July.
    13. Lu Wu & Thomas H. Misselbrook & Liping Feng & Lianhai Wu, 2020. "Assessment of Nitrogen Uptake and Biological Nitrogen Fixation Responses of Soybean to Nitrogen Fertiliser with SPACSYS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-17, July.
    14. Li, Meng & Du, Yingji & Zhang, Fucang & Bai, Yungang & Fan, Junliang & Zhang, Jianghui & Chen, Shaoming, 2019. "Simulation of cotton growth and soil water content under film-mulched drip irrigation using modified CSM-CROPGRO-cotton model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 124-138.
    15. David B. Lobell & Graeme L. Hammer & Greg McLean & Carlos Messina & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 497-501, May.
    16. Araya, A. & Kisekka, Isaya & Gowda, Prasanna H. & Prasad, P.V. Vara, 2017. "Evaluation of water-limited cropping systems in a semi-arid climate using DSSAT-CSM," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 86-98.
    17. Miao, Qingfeng & Rosa, Ricardo D. & Shi, Haibin & Paredes, Paula & Zhu, Li & Dai, Jiaxin & Gonçalves, José M. & Pereira, Luis S., 2016. "Modeling water use, transpiration and soil evaporation of spring wheat–maize and spring wheat–sunflower relay intercropping using the dual crop coefficient approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 211-229.
    18. Wu, L. & Harris, P. & Misselbrook, T.H. & Lee, M.R.F., 2022. "Simulating grazing beef and sheep systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    19. Si, Zhuanyun & Zain, Muhammad & Li, Shuang & Liu, Junming & Liang, Yueping & Gao, Yang & Duan, Aiwang, 2021. "Optimizing nitrogen application for drip-irrigated winter wheat using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    20. Zhu, Xiufang & Xu, Kun & Liu, Ying & Guo, Rui & Chen, Lingyi, 2021. "Assessing the vulnerability and risk of maize to drought in China based on the AquaCrop model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    21. Dokoohaki, Hamze & Gheysari, Mahdi & Mousavi, Sayed-Farhad & Zand-Parsa, Shahrokh & Miguez, Fernando E. & Archontoulis, Sotirios V. & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2016. "Coupling and testing a new soil water module in DSSAT CERES-Maize model for maize production under semi-arid condition," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 90-99.
    22. De Liu & Heping Zuo, 2012. "Statistical downscaling of daily climate variables for climate change impact assessment over New South Wales, Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 629-666, December.
    23. Chao Chen & Walter Baethgen & Andrew Robertson, 2013. "Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961–2003," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 767-788, February.
    24. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    25. Kang, Shaozhong & Hao, Xinmei & Du, Taisheng & Tong, Ling & Su, Xiaoling & Lu, Hongna & Li, Xiaolin & Huo, Zailin & Li, Sien & Ding, Risheng, 2017. "Improving agricultural water productivity to ensure food security in China under changing environment: From research to practice," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 5-17.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao, Dengpan & Liu, De Li & Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Waters, Cathy, 2020. "Designing high-yielding maize ideotypes to adapt changing climate in the North China Plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Wu, Zhangsheng & Li, Yue & Wang, Rong & Xu, Xu & Ren, Dongyang & Huang, Quanzhong & Xiong, Yunwu & Huang, Guanhua, 2023. "Evaluation of irrigation water saving and salinity control practices of maize and sunflower in the upper Yellow River basin with an agro-hydrological model based method," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    3. Guoqiang Zhang & Bo Ming & Dongping Shen & Ruizhi Xie & Peng Hou & Jun Xue & Keru Wang & Shaokun Li, 2021. "Optimizing Grain Yield and Water Use Efficiency Based on the Relationship between Leaf Area Index and Evapotranspiration," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Yang, Zhikai & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Deli & Ming, Bo & Li, He & Xia, Qian, 2021. "Sizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower plant considering the effects of climate change: A case study in the Longyangxia of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    5. Munyasya, Alex Ndolo & Koskei, Kiprotich & Zhou, Rui & Liu, Shu-Tong & Indoshi, Sylvia Ngaira & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Xu-Cheng & Cheruiyot, Wesly Kiprotich & Mburu, David Mwehia & Nyende, Aggrey Bernard , 2022. "Integrated on-site & off-site rainwater-harvesting system boosts rainfed maize production for better adaptation to climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    6. Chuang Liu & Huiyi Yang & Kate Gongadze & Paul Harris & Mingbin Huang & Lianhai Wu, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield of Winter Wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) and Maize ( Zea mays ) and Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Northern China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-12, April.
    7. Quan, Hao & Wu, Lihong & Ding, Dianyuan & Yang, Zhenting & Wang, Naijiang & Chen, Guangjie & Li, Cheng & Dong, Qin'ge & Feng, Hao & Zhang, Tibin & Siddique, Kadambot H.M., 2022. "Interaction between soil water and fertilizer utilization on maize under plastic mulching in an arid irrigation region of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    8. Ke Liu & Matthew Tom Harrison & Haoliang Yan & De Li Liu & Holger Meinke & Gerrit Hoogenboom & Bin Wang & Bin Peng & Kaiyu Guan & Jonas Jaegermeyr & Enli Wang & Feng Zhang & Xiaogang Yin & Sotirios Ar, 2023. "Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Cao, Zhaodan & Zhu, Tingju & Cai, Ximing, 2023. "Hydro-agro-economic optimization for irrigated farming in an arid region: The Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    10. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    11. Yang, Danni & Li, Sien & Kang, Shaozhong & Du, Taisheng & Guo, Ping & Mao, Xiaomin & Tong, Ling & Hao, Xinmei & Ding, Risheng & Niu, Jun, 2020. "Effect of drip irrigation on wheat evapotranspiration, soil evaporation and transpiration in Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    12. Jovanovic, N. & Pereira, L.S. & Paredes, P. & Pôças, I. & Cantore, V. & Todorovic, M., 2020. "A review of strategies, methods and technologies to reduce non-beneficial consumptive water use on farms considering the FAO56 methods," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    13. Liu, Yi & Zeng, Wenzhi & Ao, Chang & Lei, Guoqing & Wu, Jingwei & Huang, Jiesheng & Gaiser, Thomas & Srivastava, Amit Kumar, 2022. "Optimization of winter irrigation management for salinized farmland using a coupled model of soil water flow and crop growth," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    14. Zhang, Fengtai & Xiao, Yuedong & Gao, Lei & Ma, Dalai & Su, Ruiqi & Yang, Qing, 2022. "How agricultural water use efficiency varies in China—A spatial-temporal analysis considering unexpected outputs," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    15. Wang, Rong & Huang, Guanhua & Xu, Xu & Ren, Dongyang & Gou, Jiachao & Wu, Zhangsheng, 2022. "Significant differences in agro-hydrological processes and water productivity between canal- and well-irrigated areas in an arid region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    16. Liang, Jiaping & Shi, Wenjuan & He, Zijian & Pang, Linna & Zhang, Yanchao, 2019. "Effects of poly-γ-glutamic acid on water use efficiency, cotton yield, and fiber quality in the sandy soil of southern Xinjiang, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 48-59.
    17. Zhang, Tibin & Zou, Yufeng & Kisekka, Isaya & Biswas, Asim & Cai, Huanjie, 2021. "Comparison of different irrigation methods to synergistically improve maize’s yield, water productivity and economic benefits in an arid irrigation area," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    18. He, Qinsi & Liu, De Li & Wang, Bin & Li, Linchao & Cowie, Annette & Simmons, Aaron & Zhou, Hongxu & Tian, Qi & Li, Sien & Li, Yi & Liu, Ke & Yan, Haoliang & Harrison, Matthew Tom & Feng, Puyu & Waters, 2022. "Identifying effective agricultural management practices for climate change adaptation and mitigation: A win-win strategy in South-Eastern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    19. Duan, Chenxiao & Chen, Guangjie & Hu, Yajin & Wu, Shufang & Feng, Hao & Dong, Qin’ge, 2021. "Alternating wide ridges and narrow furrows with film mulching improves soil hydrothermal conditions and maize water use efficiency in dry sub-humid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    20. Zhao, Rongqin & Liu, Ying & Tian, Mengmeng & Ding, Minglei & Cao, Lianhai & Zhang, Zhanping & Chuai, Xiaowei & Xiao, Liangang & Yao, Lunguang, 2018. "Impacts of water and land resources exploitation on agricultural carbon emissions: The water-land-energy-carbon nexus," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 480-492.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:266:y:2022:i:c:s037837742200097x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.