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Designing high-yielding maize ideotypes to adapt changing climate in the North China Plain

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  • Xiao, Dengpan
  • Liu, De Li
  • Wang, Bin
  • Feng, Puyu
  • Waters, Cathy

Abstract

Global food production to meet growing demand is facing serious challenges from changing climate. Efficient adaptation is an important approach for mitigating the effects of changing climate on crop production and secure food supply in the future. Maize is a critically important source of food, feed and fuel, and is highly vulnerable to warming climate. In our study, using Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model, we designed different features of maize ideotypes sown at various times to maximize the yield and water use efficiency (WUE) under future climate conditions in the North China Plain (NCP). The future climate projections were sourced from one Global Climate Model (GCM) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under a high emission scenario of future societal development pathway (SSP) 585. The selected GCM projected future mean maximum (minimum) temperature during maize growing season to increase by 1.9 °C and 3.7 °C (1.5 °C and 3.2 °C) in 2040s (2031–2060) and 2080s (2071–2100) respectively, compared to the baseline (1981–2010). The mean solar radiation during maize growing season increased by 3.9% and 6.5%, and total precipitation rose by 17.3% and 21% in 2040s and 2080s, respectively. Our simulated results indicated future maize yield without adaptation decreased slightly by 2.3% in 2040s and 2.4% in 2080s, but WUE significantly increased by 11.8% and 26.6% in 2040s and 2080s, respectively. We found that delayed sowing date was able to increase maize yield and WUE under the future climate conditions. When the ideotypic cultivar and optimum sowing date were adopted, simulated yield increased by 132% and 124% in 2040s and 2080s, respectively, and WUE rose by 85% and 117%, respectively. Our simulated results indicate maize ideotypes under future climate should have a longer reproductive growing period, faster potential grain filling rate, larger maximum grain numbers and larger radiation use efficiency. Maize ideotypes based on simulated results from APSIM models could provide breeders and/or plant scientists with a road map to choose the ideal target traits for increasing maize production and adapting future climate.

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  • Xiao, Dengpan & Liu, De Li & Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Waters, Cathy, 2020. "Designing high-yielding maize ideotypes to adapt changing climate in the North China Plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:181:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x19313253
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102805
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David B. Lobell & Graeme L. Hammer & Greg McLean & Carlos Messina & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 497-501, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiao, Dengpan & Liu, De Li & Feng, Puyu & Wang, Bin & Waters, Cathy & Shen, Yanjun & Qi, Yongqing & Bai, Huizi & Tang, Jianzhao, 2021. "Future climate change impacts on grain yield and groundwater use under different cropping systems in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    2. Huang, Mingxia & Wang, Jing & Wang, Bin & Liu, De Li & Feng, Puyu & Yu, Qiang & Pan, Xuebiao & Li, Siyi & Jiang, Tengcong, 2022. "Dominant sources of uncertainty in simulating maize adaptation under future climate scenarios in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Wang, Hongzhang & Ren, Hao & Zhang, Lihua & Zhao, Yali & Liu, Yuee & He, Qijin & Li, Geng & Han, Kun & Zhang, Jiwang & Zhao, Bin & Ren, Baizhao & Liu, Peng, 2023. "A sustainable approach to narrowing the summer maize yield gap experienced by smallholders in the North China Plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & De Li Liu & Jianzhao Tang & Bin Wang & Yanjun Shen & Jiansheng Cao & Puyu Feng, 2022. "Projecting future changes in extreme climate for maize production in the North China Plain and the role of adjusting the sowing date," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Xiao, Dengpan & Liu, De Li & Wang, Bin & Feng, Puyu & Bai, Huizi & Tang, Jianzhao, 2020. "Climate change impact on yields and water use of wheat and maize in the North China Plain under future climate change scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    6. Wang, Jintao & Dong, Xinliang & Qiu, Rangjian & Lou, Boyuan & Tian, Liu & Chen, Pei & Zhang, Xuejia & Liu, Xiaojing & Sun, Hongyong, 2023. "Optimization of sowing date and irrigation schedule of maize in different cropping systems by APSIM for realizing grain mechanical harvesting in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    7. Yanxi Zhao & Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & Jianzhao Tang & Deli Liu, 2022. "Future Projection for Climate Suitability of Summer Maize in the North China Plain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, February.

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