IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecr/col070/11445.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dynamics of Mexican manufacturing exports

Author

Listed:
  • Cuevas, Víctor M.

Abstract

This article evaluates several of the determinants of Mexicanmanufacturing exports, using two complementary econometric methods: astructural ARIMA model, which makes it possible to estimate elasticities; anda generalized VAR model, which provides a fully dynamic perspective byestimating impulse response functions. As some of the findings are robustto changes in the econometric methodology used, the article reaches thefollowing conclusions. First, manufacturing exports are positively relatedto labour productivity and external demand; so the adverse effects of aninternational recession on Mexican exports could, to some extent, be offsetby raising worker productivity. Second, real exchange-rate depreciationdoes not increase manufacturing exports, but actually reduces them, atleast in the short run. These findings are consistent with the idea thata real depreciation not only affects demand, but also generates strongsupply-side effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuevas, Víctor M., 2010. "The dynamics of Mexican manufacturing exports," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11445
    Note: Includes bibliography
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/11445
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Pierre Perron & Serena Ng, 1996. "Useful Modifications to some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 435-463.
    3. Riedel, James, 1988. "The Demand for LDC Exports of Manufactures: Estimates from Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 138-148, March.
    4. Mungaray, Alejandro & Ramirez-Urquidy, Martin, 2007. "Capital humano y productividad en microempresas [Human Capital and Productivity in Microenterprises]," MPRA Paper 4064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Catao, Luis & Falcetti, Elisabetta, 2002. "Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, May.
    8. Lorraine Dearden & Howard Reed & John Van Reenen, 2006. "The Impact of Training on Productivity and Wages: Evidence from British Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 397-421, August.
    9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    10. Ijaz Nabi & Manjula Luthria, 2002. "Building Competitive Firms : Incentives and Capabilities," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15220, December.
    11. Boisso, Dale & Ferrantino, Michael, 1997. "Economic Distance, Cultural Distance, and Openness in International Trade : Empirical Puzzles," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 12, pages 456-484.
    12. Summary, Rebecca M, 1989. "A Political-Economic Model of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 179-182, February.
    13. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    14. Mortimore, Michael & Vergara, Sebastián & Katz, Jorge, 2001. "La competitividad internacional y el desarrollo nacional: implicancias para la política de inversión extranjera directa (IED) en América Latina," Desarrollo Productivo 4488, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    17. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    18. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1997. "Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_97-1, March.
    19. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    20. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-2.
    21. L. R. Maglen, 1995. "The Role of Education and Training in the Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(2), pages 128-147, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David C. López-Valenzuela & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano & Alvaro Carmona-Duarte, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución entre precios y cantidades de las exportaciones industriales de Colombia: un estudio a partir de un modelo de Panel-VAR," Borradores de Economia 1075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    2. Yau, Hwey-Yun & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2006. "Interrelationships among stock prices of Taiwan and Japan and NTD/Yen exchange rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-552, June.
    3. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    4. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl & Ernst-Oliver Ledebur, 2015. "Price Transmissions During Financialization and Turmoil: New Evidence from North American and European Agricultural Futures," CQE Working Papers 3815, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    5. Katsuya Ito, 2012. "The impact of oil price volatility on the macroeconomy in Russia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 695-702, June.
    6. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    7. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    8. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
    9. Wang, Lihong, 2014. "Who moves East Asian stock markets? The role of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 182-203.
    10. Maslov, Alexander, 2011. "Inflationary Handicap Of The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence From Russia," MPRA Paper 50036, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Apr 2012.
    11. Dua, Pami & Kapur, Hema, 2018. "Macro stress testing and resilience assessment of Indian banking," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 452-475.
    12. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2018. "Interdependencies between CDS spreads in the European Union: Is Greece the black sheep or black swan?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 441-498, July.
    13. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl & Ernst-Oliver Ledebur, 2017. "Dynamics Between North American And European Agricultural Futures Prices During Turmoil And Financialization," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 57-76, January.
    14. Chor Foon Tang & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2009. "The Effects Of Disaggregated Savings On Economic Growth In Malaysia - Generalised Variance Decomposition Analysis," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 04-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    15. Katsuya Ito, 2008. "Oil price and macroeconomy in Russia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(17), pages 1-9.
    16. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    17. Pawel Milobedzki, 2010. "The Term Structure of the Polish Interbank Rates. A Note on the Symmetry of their Reversion to the Mean," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 81-95.
    18. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    19. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    20. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Biblioteca CEPAL (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eclaccl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.