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The Impact of Oil Prices on the Food Inflation in Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Sabit Baimaganbetov

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan.)

  • Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan.)

  • Gulzhan Baibosynova

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan.)

  • Rima Yermankulova

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan.)

  • Botagoz Dandayeva

    (Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan.)

Abstract

This paper assesses empirically the effects of real oil price shocks on the food inflation in Kazakhstan for the monthly period 2004-2019 by using a VAR model. Standard unit root tests do not yield reliable results in the presence of breaks. In this regard, Zivot-Andrews (1992) has been tested with the help of unit root test. Food prices have been proven to be I(1) according to the Zivot-Andrews (1992) test, while I(0) is according to the ADF test. In subsequent steps, the causality test of the variables was performed. According to the test, there is a double-chance causality between oil prices and food prices. The short-term effect of the variables is investigated with the help of the VAR model. As a result, crude oil prices have an indirect impact on food prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabit Baimaganbetov & Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Gulzhan Baibosynova & Rima Yermankulova & Botagoz Dandayeva, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Food Inflation in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 73-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-03-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Benny Alexandri & Putri Irmala Sari & Widya Setiabudi Sumadinata, 2022. "Crude Oil Prices and Currency Exchange Rates Impact on the Indonesian Energy Stock Market during the Covid-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 48-53, July.
    2. Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Artur Bolganbayev & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2022. "The Effects of the Oil Price Shock on Inflation: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 477-481, May.
    3. Artur Bolganbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Sabit Baimaganbetov & Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev, 2021. "The Effect of Oil Prices on the Economic Growth of Oil Exporting Countries Bordering the Caspian Sea: Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 432-437.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kazakhstan; Oil Prices; Food Prices; Inflation; VAR Model; Unit-Root Test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco
    • P44 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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