IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2019-05-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Crude Oil Prices on Inflation, Interest Rates and Economic Growth in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Rostin Rostin

    (Depertment of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kendari 93232, Indonesia)

  • Abd Azis Muthalib

    (Depertment of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kendari 93232, Indonesia)

  • Pasrun Adam

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Halu Oleo Kendari, 93232, Indonesia,)

  • Muh. Nur

    (Study Program of Management, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi (STIE) Enam Enam, Kendari, 93117, Indonesia)

  • Zainudin Saenong

    (Depertment of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kendari 93232, Indonesia)

  • La Ode Suriadi

    (Depertment of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kendari 93232, Indonesia)

  • Jamal Nasir Baso

    (Depertment of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kendari 93232, Indonesia)

Abstract

This study aims to examine the effect of crude oil prices on inflation, interest rates, and economic growth in Indonesia. The data used are quarterly time series data on crude oil, interest rates, inflation, and Indonesia's economic growth from the first quarter of year 2001 to the second quarter of year 2017. To test the effect, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) equations system or a multivariate ARDL model is used. The results of data analysis reveal that (1) there are no long-run and short-run effects of crude oil prices on inflation, (2) there are long-run and short-run effects of crude oil prices to the interest rate. In the long run, every 1% increase in the price of crude oil, the interest rate drops 0,26%, and (3) there is no effect of crude oil prices on economic growth both in the short and long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Rostin Rostin & Abd Azis Muthalib & Pasrun Adam & Muh. Nur & Zainudin Saenong & La Ode Suriadi & Jamal Nasir Baso, 2019. "The Effect of Crude Oil Prices on Inflation, Interest Rates and Economic Growth in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 14-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-05-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/7829/4492
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/7829/4492
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pasrun Adam, 2016. "The Response of Bank of Indonesia s Interest Rates to the Prices of World Crude Oil and Foreign Interest Rates," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 266-272.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    3. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    4. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2014. "Revisiting the macroeconomic effects of oil and food price shocks to Pakistan economy: a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(2), pages 184-215, June.
    5. Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul, 2011. "Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8062-8069.
    6. Chitiga, Margaret & Fofana, Ismael & Mabugu, Ramos, 2012. "The poverty implications of high oil prices in South Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 293-313, June.
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2017. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-103.
    8. Adam, P. & Rianse, U. & Harafah, Ĺ. M. & Cahyono, E. & Rafiy, M., 2016. "A Model of the Dynamics of the Effect of World Crude Oil Price and World Rice Price on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes and the J-curve: New Evidence from 61 Malaysia–Thailand Industries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 30-46, November.
    10. Iwayemi, Akin & Fowowe, Babajide, 2011. "Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 603-612, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Alkirom Wildan & Mochamad Ali Imron & Endang Siswati & Siti Rosyafah, 2021. "Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Natural Gas Export Management," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 639-644.
    2. Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Tajuddin Tajuddin & Pasrun Adam & Yuwanda Purnamasari Pasrun & La Ode Saidi, 2021. "Effects of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Inflation on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 15-21.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Puah, Chin-Hong & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2019. "Energy subsidy and oil price fluctuation, and price behavior in Malaysia:A time series analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1000-1008.
    2. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    3. Hem C. Basnet & Kamal P. Upadhyaya, 2015. "Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3078-3091, June.
    4. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Belaid, Fateh & Shah, Nida, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between oil price shocks and the world food prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Pires Manso, José Ramos, 2014. "The linkage between crude oil consumption and economic growth in Latin America: The panel framework investigations for multiple regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-241.
    6. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    7. Abd Azis Muthalib & Pasrun Adam & Rostin Rostin & Zainuddin Saenong & La Ode Suriadi, 2018. "The Influence of Fuel Prices and Unemployment Rate towards the Poverty Level in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 37-42.
    8. Adam, P. & Rianse, U. & Harafah, Ĺ. M. & Cahyono, E. & Rafiy, M., 2016. "A Model of the Dynamics of the Effect of World Crude Oil Price and World Rice Price on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    9. KILICARSLAN Zerrin & DUMRUL Yasemin, 2017. "Macroeconomic Impacts Of Oil Price Shocks: An Empirical Analysis Based On The Svar Models," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 69(5), pages 55-72, December.
    10. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    11. Sabrine Ferjani & Sami Saafi & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2022. "The Impacts of the Dollar-Renminbi Exchange Rate Misalignment on the China-United States Commodity Trade: An Asymmetric Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 507-554, September.
    12. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    13. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Oil tail risks and the realized variance of consumer prices in advanced economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Fazal, Rizwan & Rehman, Syed Aziz Ur & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2022. "Graph theoretic approach to expose the energy-induced crisis in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    15. Herath, Nisal, 2014. "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Sri Lankan Economy: A Vector Auto Regression Assessment," Sri Lankan Journal of Agricultural Economics, Sri Lanka Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA), vol. 16, pages 1-33, November.
    16. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2020. "Exchange rate risk and commodity trade between U.S. and India: an asymmetry analysis," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 675-695, October.
    18. Goodness C. Aye, 2019. "Short and Long Run Asymmetric Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty on Economic Activity in the U.S," Working Papers 201923, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira, 2020. "On the impact of exchange rate volatility on Tunisia’s trade with 16 partners: an asymmetry analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 357-378, August.
    20. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2012. "Does the Iranian oil supply matter for the oil prices?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201232, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    crude oil prices; interest rate; inflation; economic growth; ARDL model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-05-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.