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Application of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroschedasticity Model on Inflation and Share Price Movement in Nigeria

Author

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  • Charles O. Manasseh

    (Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka. Enugu State, South-East Nigeria,)

  • Ambrose N. Omeje

    (Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka. Enugu State, South-East Nigeria.)

Abstract

In the past, studies on the linkage between share prices movement and inflation has been subjected to extensive research by academics, researchers, practitioners and policy makers since the 1990s. Most studies in the industrialized economies showed the existence of negative relationship between share price movement and inflation. Consequently, this paper utilized generalized autoregressive conditional heteroschedasticity (GARCH) model and investigated the influence of inflation on share price movement in Nigerian stock market, using quarterly data for the period 1981 to 2012. The findings of this paper suggest that the GARCH terms of the share price movement in Nigeria depicted a variance of autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic behaviour. Furthermore, share price movement and inflation exhibited a collective volatility of about 0.0015% during the study period. Share price movement exhibit a volatile shock of about 79% in behaviour while a 1% increase in inflation leads to about 0.15% decrease in share price movement in Nigeria. In addition, a 1% increase in market capitalization leads to about 66.8% increase in share price movement in Nigeria. Therefore, stabilizing inflation will deepen the Nigerian stock market the more thereby leading to a trickling down effect on the stock market capitalization. Hence, policies geared towards the reduction and stabilization of inflation to at least, single digit is recommended to the Nigerian monetary authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles O. Manasseh & Ambrose N. Omeje, 2016. "Application of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroschedasticity Model on Inflation and Share Price Movement in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1491-1501.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-04-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Charles O. Manasseh & Nnah M. Iroha & Kingsley I. Okere & Ifeoma C. Nwakoby & Ogochukwu C. Okanya & Nnenna Nwonye & Onuselogu Odidi & Oliver I. Inyiama, 2022. "Application of Markov chain to share price movement in Nigeria (1985–2019)," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Share Price; Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroschedasticity; Influence; Stock Market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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