IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-22-00688.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Brazilian federal government fiscal reaction in the time-frequency domain

Author

Listed:
  • Valdeir Monteiro

    (CAEN Graduate School of Economics (UFC), Brazil)

  • Paulo Matos

    (CAEN Graduate School of Economics (UFC) and Fiscal Monitor (TCE/CE), Brazil)

  • Cristiano Silva

    (Center of Agrarian Sciences (UFC), Brazil)

Abstract

We use unconditional wavelet to address fiscal reaction in Brazil over the period from 2001 to 2022. We identify medium-term insolvency of net debt only in the period 2003-2004. We find antiphase (short and medium term) co-movements led by the primary balance in the subprime crisis, during the 2016-2017 fiscal crisis and in the recent pandemic. There is this same evidence with low frequency between 2013 and 2019. Mainly after the change of fiscal regime in 2017, government has issued public bonds as a solution to balance public accounts. Although the current level of debt to GDP is not insolvent, the forecast of 60% at the end of 2022 and the high annual inflation level (12.13% in April 2022) require a lot of attention.

Suggested Citation

  • Valdeir Monteiro & Paulo Matos & Cristiano Silva, 2022. "Modeling Brazilian federal government fiscal reaction in the time-frequency domain," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 1836-1847.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-22-00688
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2022/Volume42/EB-22-V42-I4-P153.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014. "Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    4. Marco A.F.H. Cavalcanti & Napoleão L. C. Silva, 2010. "Dívida Pública, Política Fiscal e Nível de Atividade: Uma Abordagem Var Para o Brasil no Período 1995-2008," Discussion Papers 1491, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    6. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1991. "Current and Anticipated Deficits, Interest Rates and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 361-390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Issler, Joao Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2000. "Public debt sustainability and endogenous seigniorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947-1992," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 131-147, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blessy Augustine & O.P.C. Muhammed Rafi, 2021. "Public Debt - Economic Growth: Evidence of a Non-linear Relationship," BASE University Working Papers 11/2021, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    2. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "In sickness and in debt: The COVID-19 impact on sovereign credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1251-1274.
    3. Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2020. "When does public debt impair economic growth? A literature review in search of a theory," DEM Working Papers 2020/7, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    5. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "The Janus-Faced Nature Of Debt: Results From A Data-Driven Cointegrated Svar Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 24-54, January.
    6. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    7. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    8. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    9. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Debt dynamics in Europe: A Network General Equilibrium GVAR approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-202.
    10. Jussi Lindgren, 2021. "Examination of Interest-Growth Differentials and the Risk of Sovereign Insolvency," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, April.
    11. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    12. Salma Slimani, 2016. "Threshold Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity in Developing Countries," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 6(3), pages 20-37, March.
    13. Mike Seiferling, 2020. "Apples, oranges and lemons: public sector debt statistics in the 21st century," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Paulo André Camuri & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Ana Maria Hermeto, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies [Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 835-861, December.
    15. Peter Skott, 2016. "Aggregate demand, functional finance, and secular stagnation," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 172-188, September.
    16. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2015. "Government Debt and Economic Growth – Decomposing the Cause and Effect Relationship," MPRA Paper 64105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bhandari, Anmol & Evans, David & Golosov, Mikhail & Sargent, Thomas J., 2017. "Public debt in economies with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 39-51.
    18. Achim Truger, 2013. "Austerity in the euro area: the sad state of economic policy in Germany and the EU," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 158-174.
    19. Alesina, A. & Passalacqua, A., 2016. "The Political Economy of Government Debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2599-2651, Elsevier.
    20. Patrick Villieu, 2011. "Quel objectif pour la dette publique à moyen terme ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 103(3), pages 79-98.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Solvency; Wavelet coherency; Primary balance.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-22-00688. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.