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Survival of Nigeria's Exports in Her Biggest Markets: Continuous and Discrete Time Estimations

Author

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  • Damilola Felix Arawomo

    (Nigerian Institute for Social and Economic Research, NISER)

Abstract

Trade duration and its determinants have been largely overlooked in both theoretical and empirical literature, especially in the developing countries. It is in view of this, that this paper examined extent and drivers of export survival of Nigeria's products in her biggest markets (United State, Germany, France, China, and Japan). While the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to examine the extent of Nigeria's export survival in her major destinations, the Cox proportional hazards model and Prentice-Gloeckler were compared in estimating the determinants of survival. Results show that the survival rate of Nigeria's export has been low. 49.4% of Nigeria's export survives for more than one year, 37.8% survives for up to 10 years, and only 4.5% survives a 42 years period. As regards the determinants of export survival, language, initial export value, and exchange rate are the factors that promote the survival of Nigeria's export, while distance, GDP per capita, colonial ties, total export, competition, and tariff discourages it.

Suggested Citation

  • Damilola Felix Arawomo, 2015. "Survival of Nigeria's Exports in Her Biggest Markets: Continuous and Discrete Time Estimations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1700-1708.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00361
    as

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2015/Volume35/EB-15-V35-I3-P173.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. MAJUNE, Socrates, 2015. "A discrete time analysis of export duration in Kenya: 1995 -2014," MPRA Paper 68727, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export Survival; Export Hazard; Kaplan-Meier estimator; Cox proportional hazard; Prentice-Gloeckler;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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