Oil prices and trade balance: A wavelet based analysis for India
AbstractThe study examinations lead-lag relationship between real oil price (ROP) and real trade balance (RTB) for India using monthly data and covering period from January 1980 to December 2011. To in depth examine the issue, study decomposes the time-frequency relationship between ROP and RTB utilising continuous wavelet approach. Result of the Rua's (2010) measure of wavelet cohesion show that there was high degree of positive correlation in the 0.25-0.5 years-scale corresponding to 1983-1984 and 1986-1989; and in the 0.75-2 years-scale corresponding to 2008-2010. However, evidence of high negative correlation was found in 0.5-1 years-scale corresponding to 1987-1990, 1994-1996 and 2001-2005 and evidence of strong negative correlation was found in 1.75-2.25 years-scale corresponding to 1990-1997. Further, results of wavelet coherence analysis show that in the significant region of coherency and corresponding year-scales, real oil price was leading over India's trade balance indicating that an increase in the oil price will increase India's trade balance. These results corroborate the findings in Le and Chang (2013) and contrary to the findings in Hassan and Zaman (2012).
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 33 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Oil prices; Trade balance; Wavelet analysis; India;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- António Rua, 2010.
"Measuring comovement in the time-frequency space,"
w201001, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Erceg & Martin Bodenstein, 2008.
"Oil Shocks and External Adjustment,"
2008 Meeting Papers
945, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Lutz Kilian & Alessandro Rebucci & Nikola Spatafora, 2007.
"Oil Shocks and External Balances,"
562, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- António Rua & Luís Catela Nunes, 2009.
"International comovement of stock market returns: a wavelet analysis,"
w200904, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Rua, António & Nunes, Luís C., 2009. "International comovement of stock market returns: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 632-639, September.
- Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2013. "Oil price shocks and trade imbalances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 78-96.
- Bollino, Carlo Andrea, 2007. "Oil prices and the U.S. trade deficit," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 729-738.
- Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000.
"Oil prices and the terms of trade,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
- Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992.
"The role of energy in real business cycle models,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
- Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, 2004.
"Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2013. "Oil prices and the macroeconomy reconsideration for Germany: Using continuous wavelet," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 636-642.
- Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
- Hassan, Syeda Anam & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2125-2143.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India - An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-068, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Gazi Salah Uddin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2013. "Measuring co-movement of oil price and exchange rate differential in Bangladesh," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1922-1930.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.