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Russian Financial Crisis of 1998: An Econometric Investigation

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  • Feridun, Mete

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    Abstract

    This article aims at deriving lessons from the Russian financial crisis through examining the root causes of the crisis based on a probit model incorporating 20 monthly macroeconomic and financial sector indicators spanning the period 1988:1 – 1998:8. The results turned out to be as expected. Strong evidence emerged suggesting that the significant variables are foreign direct investment/GDP, inflation, world oil prices, real interest rates, current account/GDP, GDP per capita, foreign exchange reserves, stock prices, real exchange rate, and export growth. Signs of the variables were mostly in line with what one would have expected, except public debt, bank reserves / bank assets, real interest rates, and lending and deposit rate spread.

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    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/ijaeqs146.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .

    Volume (Year): 1 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 113-122
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    Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:1:y2004:i:1_24

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    Related research

    Keywords: Russian financial crisis; probit model; early warning systems;

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    References

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    1. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    3. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-19, March.
    4. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    6. Feridun, M., 2004. "Brazilian Real Crisis Revisited: A Linear Probability Model to Identify Leading Indicators," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 81-96.
    7. Pablo Bustelo & Clara Garcia & Iliana Olivie, 1999. "Global and Domestic Factors of Financial Crises in Emerging Economies: Lessons from the East Asian Episodes (1997-1999)," Working Papers 002, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    8. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    9. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
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