Brazilian Real Crisis Revisited: A Linear Probability Model to Identify Leading Indicators
AbstractThis article aims at identifying the indicators of the Brazilian real crisis through building a probit model incorporating 20 monthly macroeconomic, political, and financial sector indicators from 1980:1 – 1999:1. Results indicate that the significant variables are inflation (1-month lag), real exchange rate (1-month lag), import growth (1-month lag), US interest rates (2-month lag), public debt/GDP (2-month lag), and current account/GDP (3-month lag). Evidence further indicates that the signs of the variables are in line with our expectations, with the exception of US interest rates.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .
Volume (Year): 1 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
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