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Output Responses to Shocks to Interest Rates, Inflation, and Stock Returns: Evidence from Jordan

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Author Info
Al-Sharkas, A.A. ()
Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between the Jordanian output and other macroeconomics variables such as inflation, interest rate and stock returns. It employs the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) approach method of Lee (1992) to analyze the relationship and dynamic interaction among variables. The Impulse Response Functions (IRF), and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) from the VAR model are computed in order to investigate inter-relationships in the system. The results show that the response of output to shocks in stock returns is strongly positive up to the first 6 periods and after which the effect almost dies.

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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 4 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:4:y:2004:i:1_22

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-68, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  4. Homa, Kenneth E & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1971. "The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1045-66, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. " Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-603, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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