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Financial crises and economic growth in Pakistan: a time series analysis

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  • Azam, Rauf i
  • Batool, Iram
  • Imran, Rabia
  • Chani, Muhammad Irfan
  • Hunjra, Ahmed Imran
  • Jasra, Javed Mahmood

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to investigate causal relationship between economic growth and major indicators of financial crisis -- inflation rate, interest rate and the volume of foreign debt-- in Pakistan. This study also highlights the stability of the relationship between indicators of financial crisis and economic growth. The annual time series data ranging from 1972 to 2010 is used for the analysis. Johansen's co-integration test is used to check the stability of long run equilibrium relationship between the variables used in the study. The results indicate that is long run stable equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the three components of financial crisis in Pakistan. The estimates based on pair-wise Granger Causality test show that bidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and the each indicator of financial crisis considered in this study.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 40691.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Publication status: Published in Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research 3.9(2011): pp. 425-430
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40691

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Keywords: Macro economic variables; economic growth; co-integration; financial system;

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References

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  2. Kim, Yun-Hwan, 2001. "The Asian crisis, private sector saving, and policy implications," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 331-351.
  3. Azam, Muhammad & Khan, Hashim & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Ahmad, H. Mushtaq & Chani, Muhammad Irfan, 2011. "Institutions, macroeconomic policy and foreign direct investment: South Asian countries case," MPRA Paper 32480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-37, Summer.
  5. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  6. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2006. "The role of foreign currency debt in financial crises: 1880-1913 versus 1972-1997," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3299-3329, December.
  7. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Azam, Muhammad & Niazi, Ghulam Shabbir Khan & Butt, Babar Zaheer & Rehman, Kashif-Ur- & Azam, Rauf i, 2010. "Risk and return relationship in stock market and commodity prices: a comprehensive study of Pakistani markets," MPRA Paper 40662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  9. Muhammad Irfan CHANI & Zahid PERVAIZ & Amatul R. CHAUDHARY, 2011. "Determination of Import Demand in Pakistan: The Role of Expenditure Components," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(8(561)), pages 93-110, August.
  10. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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