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How Has Inflation Changed in Canada? A Comparison of 1989­2001 to 1964­1988

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  • David R. Johnson
  • Sebastian Gerlich
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    Abstract

    Has the inflation process fundamentally changed in Canada in the last decade? We compare the dynamics of inflation from 1964 through 1988 to the dynamics of inflation from 1989 to 2001. Although the average rate of inflation fell and inflation has become less variable since 1988, we conclude that the dynamics of inflation have not changed substantially. A negative output gap reduces inflation and the adjustment of expected inflation to lagged actual inflation continues to be slow. The sacrifice ratio, the short-run inflation-output trade-off remains similar. The makers of monetary policy in Canada face the same trade-offs before and after 1988.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Toronto Press in its journal Canadian Public Policy.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 563-579

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    Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:28:y:2002:i:4:p:563-579

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    Postal: University of Toronto Press Journals Division 5201 Dufferin Street Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3H 5T8
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    Web page: http://economics.ca/cpp/

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    1. Maral Kichian, 2001. "On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 01-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. Pierre Fortin, 1993. "The Unbearable Lightness of Zero-Inflation Optimism," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 15, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    3. Thomas Laubach & Adam Posen, 1997. "Some comparative evidence on the effectiveness of inflation targeting," Research Paper 9714, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Thomas Jordan, 1997. "Disinflation costs, accelerating inflation gains, and central bank independence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    6. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    7. David R. Johnson, 1990. "An Evaluation of the Bank of Canada Zero Inflation Target: Do Michael Wilson and John Crow Agree?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 16(3), pages 308-325, September.
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