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Economic Situation of the Country or Risk in the World Financial Market? The Dynamics of Polish Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads

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  • Agata Kliber

    (Poznan Universoty of Economics)

  • Barbara Bedowska-Sojka

    (Poznan Universoty of Economics)

Abstract

In the article we examine what determines the Polish sovereign Credit Default Swap dynamics. We consider not only measures of changes of the economic situation of the country, but also the impact of the international data. We find that the dynamics of the Polish sCDSs is very vulnerable to the dynamics of exchange rates, stock indices and bond spreads. These variables allow us to explain its behavior without including variables reflecting economic situation of the country. It is shown that the impact of information inflow is also important.

Suggested Citation

  • Agata Kliber & Barbara Bedowska-Sojka, 2013. "Economic Situation of the Country or Risk in the World Financial Market? The Dynamics of Polish Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 13, pages 87-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpn:umkdem:v:13:y:2013:p:87-106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    2. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2010. "The Credit Default Swap Market and the Settlement of Large Defaults," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 123, pages 91-120.
    3. Agata Kliber, 2013. "Influence of the Greek Crisis on the Risk Perception of European Economies," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(2), pages 125-161, June.
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    8. Coudert, V. & Gex, M., 2010. "Credit default swap and bond markets: which leads the other?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 14, pages 161-167, July.
    9. S»bastien Laurent and Jean-Philippe Peters, 2001. "G@RCH 2.0: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 123, Society for Computational Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kliber Agata, 2016. "Impact Of The Ban On Uncovered SCDS Trade On the Interdependencies Between The CDS Market And Other Sectors Of Financial Markets. The Case Of Safe And Developed Versus Risky And Developing European Ma," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 77-99, March.
    2. Agata Kliber, 2014. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Evolution of the Financial Crisis in Selected Central European Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 330-350, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign Credit Default Swap; Bond spread; Stock Exchange indices; exchange rates; sunspots; volatility transmission; volatility models; principal component analysis; event analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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