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Un modelo de predicciones diarias para contratos de futuros de azúcar

Author

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  • Julio Alonso Cifuentes
  • Andrés Arcila Vásquez

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo es estimar el mejor modelo que permita pronosticar los precios internacionales del azúcar en los mercados de Nueva York y Londres. Para ello, se busca alguna relación de largo plazo entre la cotización diaria del WTI y los precios del azúcar en esos dos mercados. Se concluye que no existe cointegración entre estas series, lo que indica la no existencia de dicha relación en el largo plazo. Para identificar la relación en el corto plazo se estimó un VAR diferenciando las series. Se encontró que un modelo ARIMA univariado es el mejor para predecir el precio internacional del azúcar.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Alonso Cifuentes & Andrés Arcila Vásquez, 2012. "Un modelo de predicciones diarias para contratos de futuros de azúcar," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 6(2), pages 33-51, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000411:010338
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Relación de largo plazo; cointegración; ventanas recursivas; azúcar; bienes primarios; intercambio estacional; pronóstico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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