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Exchange rate regimes and inflation: only hard pegs make a difference

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  • Michael Bleaney
  • Manuela Francisco

Abstract

Using data from a large sample of developing countries from 1985 to 2001, we confirm that hard pegs (currency boards or a shared currency) reduce inflation and money growth. There is no evidence that soft pegs confer any monetary discipline, after other factors are controlled for. Inflation triggers regime switches. Under hard pegs, monetary growth is unaffected by fiscal deficits or by inflation shocks. Under soft pegs, as under floats, increased fiscal deficits and positive inflation shocks are associated with higher monetary growth. The apparently slower per capita output growth under hard pegs is explained by their geographical distribution.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1453-1471

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:38:y:2005:i:4:p:1453-1471

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Plümper and Eric Neumayer, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice with Multiple Key Currencies," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp264, IIIS.
  2. Aaron Jackson & William Miles, 2008. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Disinflation in Emerging Markets: How Large Is the Effect?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 538-557, October.
  3. Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Atish R. Ghosh & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2011. "Words vs. Deeds: What Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 11/112, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Tavlas, George & Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan C., 2008. "The classification and performance of alternative exchange-rate systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 941-963, August.
  5. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
  6. Rajan, Ramkishen, 2011. "Management of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Asia," ADBI Working Papers 322, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  7. Michael Bleaney, & Manuela Francisco, . "The Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries - Does the Classifications Scheme Matter?," Discussion Papers 07/04, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  8. Manuela Francisco & Michael Bleaney, 2005. "Inflation Persistence and Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Developing Countries," NIPE Working Papers 1/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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