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Die D-Mark in Osteuropa, das Schwarzgeld und der Euro: Zur Größe des Effektes

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Author Info

  • Hans Werner Sinn
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

Flüchtendes Schwarzgeld sowie aus Osteuropa und der Türkei zurückdrängende DM-Bestände können den Kursverfall des Euro maßgeblich erklären: Das von Hans-Werner Sinn und Frank Westermann formulierte Portfolio-Balance Modell unterscheidet nämlich im Gegensatz zu anderen Modellen dieser Art zwischen Bargeld, Wertpapieren und Aktien im internationalen Portfolio der Kapitalanleger. Es zeigt, dass der Wechselkurs nur von der Bestandsnachfrage nach Geld im engeren Sinne, also Ml oder M0, und nicht etwa M3 oder anderen Aggregaten mit zinstragenden Titeln abhängt. Berechungen ergeben, dass von 1997 bis 2000 fast 50 Mrd. Euro aus Osteuropa, der Türkei und aus »schwarzen Taschen« an die Zentralbanken der elf Euro-Länder zurückgeflossen sein könnten. Überträgt man die Ergebnisse einer amerikanischen Untersuchung, die zeigen, dass jede Milliarde zusätzlicher sterilisierter Dollar-Geldnachfrage den Dollarkurs um einen halben Cent erhöht, auf den Eurokurs, so lassen sich damit 25 Cent der insgesamt 34 Cent, um die der Euro im Zeitraum 1997-2000 abwertete, erklären. Der Abwertungsdruck hält wahrscheinlich noch bis Ende des Jahres an. Nach der physischen Einführung des Euro im Januar und Februar des nächsten Jahres wird dieser Druck indes allmählich verschwinden.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 54 (2001)
Issue (Month): 19 (October)
Pages: 18-23

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:54:y:2001:i:19:p:18-23

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Related research

Keywords: Börsennotierung; Wechselkurs; Geldnachfrage; Euro; D-Mark; Abwertung;

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  1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Helmut Stix, 2001. "Survey Results about Foreign Currency Holdings in Five Central and Eastern European Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(3), pages 41-48, 02.
  4. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1996. "International Implications of German Unification," NBER Working Papers 5839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
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