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Unité et pluralité du cycle européen

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Author Info

  • Guilhem Bentoglio
  • Jacky Fayolle
  • Matthieu Lemoine

Abstract

This article estimates inobservable components models for studying the division of the zone euro GDP between trends and cycles, using quarterly data covering all the decades 1960 to 1990. Three approaches are confronted: they respectively identify the European cycles starting from the aggregate GDP of the zone euro; from the aggregation of the national cycles; finally, from multivariate model, which gathers the whole of the zone euro countries. Convergence between the results of these approaches is satisfactory. But the national cycles are not yet reducible to the common component which shows through in the aggregate cycle of the European GDP. This common and symmetrical component contributes only for one third approximately to the whole of national cycles. The definition of a balanced policy mix should take into account the persistent plurality of the European cycles.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 78 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 9-73

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_078_0009

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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm

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References

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  1. Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 2000. "Tests Of Common Stochastic Trends," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 176-199, April.
  2. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
  3. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the U.S," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10141, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Jacky Fayolle & Alexandre Mathis, 1993. "Tendances et cycles stylisés dans les pays du G7 - Une approche stochastique," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 201-233.
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Cited by:
  1. Jérôme Creel & Jacky Fayolle, 2002. "La banque centrale et l’union monétaire européennes : les tribulations de la crédibilité," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2942, Sciences Po.
  2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2129 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Matthieu Lemoine & Florian Pelgrin, 2003. "Introduction aux modèles espace état et au filtre de Kalman," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2129, Sciences Po.
  5. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
  6. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Ibourk, Aomar, 2005. "Le Cycle des affaires dans les pays MENA Une Application du Filtre Hodrick-Prescott
    [The Business Cycle in MENA Application of a Hodrick-Prescott Filter]
    ," MPRA Paper 46115, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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