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Estimation of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall based on Nonlinear Models of Return Dynamics and Extreme Value Theory

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Author Info

  • Martins-Filho Carlos

    ()
    (Oregon State University)

  • Yao Feng

    ()
    (University of North Dakota)

Abstract

We propose an estimation procedure for value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (TailVaR) for conditional distributions of a time series of returns on a financial asset. Our approach combines a local polynomial estimator of conditional mean and volatility functions in a conditional heterocedastic autoregressive nonlinear (CHARN) model with Extreme Value Theory for estimating quantiles of the conditional distribution. We investigate the finite sample properties of our method and contrast them with alternatives, including the method recently proposed by McNeil and Frey (2000), in an extensive Monte Carlo study. The method we propose outperforms the estimators currently available in the literature. An evaluation based on backtesting was also performed.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 1-43

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:10:y:2006:i:2:n:4

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Cited by:
  1. Maria Rosa Nieto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws087326, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  2. Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. Médecin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  3. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Jose Olmo, 2007. "Backtesting Parametric Value-at-Risk with Estimation Risk," Caepr Working Papers 2007-005_updated, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  4. Martins-Filho, Carlos & Yao, Feng, 2009. "Nonparametric regression estimation with general parametric error covariance," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 309-333, March.
  5. John G. Galbraith & Serguei Zernov, 2006. "Extreme Dependence In The Nasdaq And S&P Composite Indexes," Departmental Working Papers 2006-14, McGill University, Department of Economics.
  6. Emmanuel Jurczenko & Bertrand Maillet & Paul Merlin, 2008. "Efficient Frontier for Robust Higher-order Moment Portfolio Selection," Post-Print halshs-00336475, HAL.

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