The Yemeni Conflicts: A Mismatch Theory Interpretation

This article examines the causes of the current centrist and secessionist civil conflicts in Yemen. We argue that it is possible to explain the outbreak of the struggle of the Houthis against the central government as well as the acceleration of southern secessionist demands in light of the mismatch theory developed by Herrera, Morelli, and Nunnari (2019). In line with this model, we show that the two conflicts erupted once the relatively low political-economic power of the Houthis and of the southern secessionists was no longer matched by a parallel imbalance in their relative military strength vis-à-vis the central government. To examine the implications of the theory in Yemen, we use qualitative evidence on the two ongoing conflicts. The Yemeni case suggests that conflicts exhibiting a non-parallel asymmetry in relative military strength and political-economic power between the warring actors can be interpreted in light of the mismatch theory, regardless of their direction or the objectives their players pursue.