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The Behavior of Divorce Rates: A Smooth Transition Regression Approach

Author

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  • Korhonen Marko
  • Puhakka Mikko

    (Department of Economics, Accounting and Finance, The University of Oulu Business School, 90014Oulu, Finland)

Abstract

We explore the behavior of the divorce rates in 17 OECD countries for the period 1960–2010. Many studies have found persistence in divorce rates after changes in divorce laws. We formulate a nonlinear model to explain the behavior of divorce rates, over time, after a large change in divorce rate, including changes in divorce laws. We argue that the stationary smooth transition regression (STR) approach is useful in analyzing divorce rates. We reject the persistence result and, in addition, provide evidence on asymmetries in divorce rates. This suggests that one should be careful when interpreting the effects of the changes in divorce rates (especially changes in the divorce and family laws) on divorce rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Korhonen Marko & Puhakka Mikko, 2021. "The Behavior of Divorce Rates: A Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jtsmet:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:1-19:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/jtse-2019-0018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    divorce law; divorce rate; persistence; smooth transition regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • K36 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Family and Personal Law

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