IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v17y2021i1p29-46n4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring competitive balance in sports

Author

Listed:
  • Doria Matthew

    (Salary Cap Management at NBA, New York, NY, USA)

  • Nalebuff Barry

    (Yale School of Management, New Haven, Connecticut, USA)

Abstract

In order to make comparisons of competitive balance across sports leagues, we need to take into account how different season lengths influence observed measures of balance. We develop the first measures of competitive balance that are invariant to season length. The most commonly used measure, the ASD/ISD or Noll-Scully ratio, is biased. It artificially inflates the imbalance for leagues with long seasons (e.g., MLB) compared to those with short seasons (e.g., NFL). We provide a general model of competition that leads to unbiased variance estimates. The result is a new ordering across leagues: the NFL goes from having the most balance to being tied for the least, while MLB becomes the sport with the most balance. Our model also provides insight into competitive balance at the game level. We shift attention from team-level to game-level measures as these are more directly related to the predictability of a representative contest. Finally, we measure competitive balance at the season level. We do so by looking at the predictability of the final rankings as seen from the start of the season. Here the NBA stands out for having the most predictable results and hence the lowest full-season competitive balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Doria Matthew & Nalebuff Barry, 2021. "Measuring competitive balance in sports," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 29-46, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:17:y:2021:i:1:p:29-46:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2020-0006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2020-0006
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jqas-2020-0006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Owen, P. Dorian, 2010. "Limitations of the relative standard deviation of win percentages for measuring competitive balance in sports leagues," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 38-41, October.
    2. Kelly Goossens, 2006. "Competitive Balance in European Football - Comparison by Adapting Measures: National Measure of Seasonal Imbalance and Top 3," IASE Conference Papers 0620, International Association of Sports Economists.
    3. Kelly Goossens, 2006. "Competitive balance in european football: comparison by adapting measures: national measure of seasonal imbalance and Top 3," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 2(2), pages 77-122, Dicembre.
    4. P. Owen & Michael Ryan & Clayton Weatherston, 2007. "Measuring Competitive Balance in Professional Team Sports Using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 31(4), pages 289-302, December.
    5. P. Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2015. "Competitive Balance Measures In Sports Leagues: The Effects Of Variation In Season Length," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 731-744, January.
    6. Nicolas Scelles & Michel Desbordes & Christophe Durand, 2011. "Marketing in sport leagues: optimising the product design. Intra-championship competitive intensity in French football "Ligue 1" and basketball "Pro A"," Post-Print halshs-02110756, HAL.
    7. Trandel Gregory A & Maxcy Joel G, 2011. "Adjusting Winning-Percentage Standard Deviations and a Measure of Competitive Balance for Home Advantage," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Jeffrey Ely & Alexander Frankel & Emir Kamenica, 2015. "Suspense and Surprise," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(1), pages 215-260.
    9. Rodney Fort & Joel Maxcy, 2003. "“Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues: An Introductionâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(2), pages 154-160, May.
    10. E. Eckard, 1998. "The NCAA Cartel and Competitive Balance in College Football," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 13(3), pages 347-369, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Young Hoon Lee & Yongdai Kim & Sara Kim, 2019. "A Bias-Corrected Estimator of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 479-508, May.
    3. Bulent Uyar & David Surdam, 2013. "Searching for On-Field Parity," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(5), pages 479-497, October.
    4. P. Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2015. "Competitive Balance Measures In Sports Leagues: The Effects Of Variation In Season Length," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 731-744, January.
    5. András Gyimesi, 2020. "League Ranking Mobility Affects Attendance: Evidence From European Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(8), pages 808-828, December.
    6. Gyimesi, András, 2021. "Hosszú távú versenyegyensúly egy csapatsportliga közgazdasági modelljében [Long-term competitive balance in an economic model of a team sports league]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 585-616.
    7. Hayley Jang & Young Hoon Lee & Rodney Fort, 2019. "Winning In Professional Team Sports: Historical Moments," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 103-120, January.
    8. Meletakos, Panagiotis & Chatzicharistos, Dimitrios & Apostolidis, Nikolaos & Manasis, Vasilios & Bayios, Ioannis, 2016. "Foreign players and competitive balance in Greek basketball and handball championships," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 391-401.
    9. Dorian Owen & Caitlin Owen, 2017. "Simulation Evidence on Herfindahl-Hirschman Indices as Measures of Competitive Balance," Working Papers 1715, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2017.
    10. L'aszl'o Csat'o & D'ora Gr'eta Petr'oczy, 2020. "Bibliometric indices as a measure of performance and competitive balance in the knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League," Papers 2005.13416, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    11. Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez & Julio del Corral & R. Todd Jewell & Jorge García-Unanue & Cornel Nesseler, 2019. "A Prospective Analysis of Competitive Balance Levels in Major League Soccer," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 54(1), pages 175-190, February.
    12. Richard Evans, 2014. "A review of measures of competitive balance in the ‘analysis of competitive balance’ literature," Birkbeck Sports Business Centre Working Papers 9, Birkbeck College, Department of Management.
    13. repec:qut:auncer:2013_04 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Young Hoon Lee & Yongdai Kim & Sara Kim, 2018. "Unbiased Estimation of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues with Unbalanced Schedules," Working Papers 1801, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    15. Jean‐Pascal Gayant & Nicolas Le Pape, 2017. "Increasing Downside or Outer Risk? The Challenge of Measuring Competitive Imbalance in Closed and Open Leagues," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(3), pages 774-795, January.
    16. Franziska Prockl & Dirk Semmelroth, 2018. "Perception Versus Reality - Competitive Balance In Major League Soccer From 1996 – 2016," Working Papers Dissertations 36, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    17. Fernández-Roldán Díaz, Alejandro & Santiago-Caballero, Carlos, 2017. "Decomposing competitive balance in the major European football leagues : a Rawlsian approach," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 24658, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    18. E. Woodrow Eckard, 2019. "Does the NCAA’s Collegiate Model Promote Competitive Balance? Power-5 Conference Football Versus the NFL," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(5), pages 654-670, June.
    19. Girish Ramchandani & Daniel Plumley & Adam Davis & Rob Wilson, 2023. "A Review of Competitive Balance in European Football Leagues before and after Financial Fair Play Regulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-15, February.
    20. Avila-Cano, Antonio & Owen, P. Dorian & Triguero-Ruiz, Francisco, 2023. "Measuring competitive balance in sports leagues that award bonus points, with an application to rugby union," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 939-952.
    21. Lee Scyoc & M. Kevin McGee, 2016. "Testing for competitive balance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1029-1043, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:17:y:2021:i:1:p:29-46:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.