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State Income Inequality and Presidential Election Turnout and Outcomes

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  • James K. Galbraith
  • J. Travis Hale

Abstract

Objective. This study examines the links among income inequality, voter turnout, and electoral choice at the state level in recent presidential elections. Methods. We introduce two new state‐level ecological data sets, estimated annual Gini coefficients of income inequality from 1969 to 2004 and a measure of income segregation across Census tracts within states in 1999. We test for associations among inequality, turnout, and party preference with cross‐sectional, fixed‐effects, and multilevel analyses. Results. The cross‐sectional effect of inequality on voter turnout and electoral choice is ambiguous. However, a fixed‐effects analysis links higher income inequality to lower voter turnout and also to a stronger Democratic vote. Multilevel results indicate that higher levels of economic segregation likewise are associated with depressed turnout, after controlling for individual voter characteristics and for state‐level income.

Suggested Citation

  • James K. Galbraith & J. Travis Hale, 2008. "State Income Inequality and Presidential Election Turnout and Outcomes," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(4), pages 887-901, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:89:y:2008:i:4:p:887-901
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2008.00589.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2000. "Understanding Increasing and Decreasing Wage Inequality," NBER Chapters, in: The Impact of International Trade on Wages, pages 227-268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2017. "Political participation and party capture in a dualized economy: A game theory approach," CIW Discussion Papers 4/2017, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    2. Engelhardt, Carina & Wagener, Andreas, 2017. "The income distribution of voters: a case study from Germany," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-586, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    3. Gary A. Hoover & Mehmet E. Yaya, 2011. "Racial/Ethnic Income Inequality Responses to a Government Maintenance Program in the United States," Public Finance Review, , vol. 39(3), pages 462-478, May.
    4. Pinar Deniz & Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2021. "Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 323-352, April.
    5. James Galbraith, 2009. "Inequality, unemployment and growth: New measures for old controversies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 7(2), pages 189-206, June.
    6. Kosta Josifidis & Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Novica Supić, 2016. "Redistribution and Transmission Mechanisms of Income Inequality – Panel Analysis of the Affluent OECD Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(2), pages 231-258, April.
    7. Michele Cantarella & Nicolo' Fraccaroli & Roberto Volpe, 2019. "Does fake news affect voting behaviour?," Department of Economics 0146, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    8. Heidrich, Stefanie, 2015. "Intergenerational Mobility in Sweden: a Regional Perspective," Umeå Economic Studies 916, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    9. Maoyong Fan & Anita Alves Pena, 2021. "Decomposing US Political Ideology: Local Labor Market Polarization and Race in the 2016 Presidential Election," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 56-70, March.
    10. Boyce, James K. & Zwickl, Klara & Ash, Michael, 2016. "Measuring environmental inequality," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 114-123.
    11. Ping Xu & James C. Garand, 2010. "Economic Context and Americans' Perceptions of Income Inequality," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 91(s1), pages 1220-1241.
    12. Daniel L. Bennet, 2016. "Subnational Economic Freedom and Performance in the United States and Canada," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(1), pages 165-185, Winter.
    13. Galbraith, James & Choi, Jaehee, 2020. "The consequences of economic inequality for presidential elections in the United States," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 86-98.
    14. Maoyong Fan & Anita Alves Pena, 0. "Decomposing US Political Ideology: Local Labor Market Polarization and Race in the 2016 Presidential Election," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-15.
    15. Stefanie Heidrich, 2017. "Intergenerational mobility in Sweden: a regional perspective," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 1241-1280, October.
    16. Schaub, Max, 2021. "Acute Financial Hardship and Voter Turnout: Theory and Evidence from the Sequence of Bank Working Days," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 115(4), pages 1258-1274.
    17. Andrew J. Rettenmaier & Zijun Wang, 2012. "Regional variations in medical spending and utilization: a longitudinal analysis of US Medicare population," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 67-82, February.

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