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On the Sources of Inflation in Kenya: A Model-Based Approach

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  • Michal Andrle
  • Andrew Berg
  • R. Armando Morales
  • Rafael Portillo
  • Jan Vlcek

Abstract

type="main"> We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model – with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics to study the sources of inflation in Kenya in recent years. To do so, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) through the model to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps) – including for the international and domestic relative price of food. We use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. We also discuss the implications of this exercise for the use of model-based monetary policy analysis in sub-Saharan African countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Andrle & Andrew Berg & R. Armando Morales & Rafael Portillo & Jan Vlcek, 2015. "On the Sources of Inflation in Kenya: A Model-Based Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 475-505, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:83:y:2015:i:4:p:475-505
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/saje.12072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    2. Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio & Mishra, Prachi, 2010. "Monetary transmission in low income countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 7951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
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    5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    6. Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mai Dao & Mr. Alfredo Baldini, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis: The Case of Zambia," IMF Working Papers 2012/094, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
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    2. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Volha Audzei & Jakub Mateju & Michal Kejak & Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, 2016. "Financial Cycles and Macroprudential and Monetary Policies," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 14, number rb14/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek, January.
    3. Krzysztof Drachal, 2019. "Analysis of Agricultural Commodities Prices with New Bayesian Model Combination Schemes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-23, September.
    4. Ms. Grace B Li & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2016. "VAR meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/090, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner & Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek & Mirko Djukic & Tibor Hledik & Jiri Polansky & Ljubica Trajcev & Jan Vlcek & Ruslan Aliyev & Dana Hajkova & Ivana Kubicova, 2017. "Effects of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 15, number rb15/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Jan Bruha, January.
    6. Kamil Galuscak & Ivan Sutoris & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha & Filip Novotny & Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2017. "Trade and External Relations," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 15, number rb15/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha, January.

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