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The riskiness of outstanding mortgages in the United States, 1999–2019

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  • William D. Larson

Abstract

This article introduces measures of credit risk for all outstanding mortgages in the United States between 1999 and 2019. Terminations play a fundamental role in offsetting risk introduced by new originations because of refinance activity and the often dual nature of home buyers as concurrent sellers. To illustrate these concepts in a policy setting, I show that the Home Affordable Refinance Program increased origination risk metrics but reduced overall risk due to associated terminations of even riskier loans. In addition to these flow dynamics, amortization, loan age, collateral appreciation, and prior selection drive changes to portfolio‐level risk.

Suggested Citation

  • William D. Larson, 2023. "The riskiness of outstanding mortgages in the United States, 1999–2019," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 279-310, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:51:y:2023:i:2:p:279-310
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12419
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    Cited by:

    1. William D. Larson & Christos Makridis & Chad Redmer, 2021. "Borrower Expectations and Mortgage Performance: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," FHFA Staff Working Papers 21-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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