IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v35y2007i4p541-567.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predictability in Equilibrium: The Price Dynamics of Real Estate Investment Trusts

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis R. Capozza
  • Ryan D. Israelsen

Abstract

This research hypothesizes that, in markets where information costs, transaction costs and the economic impact of information can vary widely, we should expect predictability to vary systematically. We test this hypothesis with data on equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) from 1985 to 1992. We document that levels of predictability vary with firm characteristics like leverage, size and focus. Momentum is stronger for larger, more levered REITs. Reversion is faster for focused, levered REITs. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that, in equilibrium, securities, where information is either less costly to acquire or has less impact on fundamental value, should exhibit less predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis R. Capozza & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2007. "Predictability in Equilibrium: The Price Dynamics of Real Estate Investment Trusts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 541-567, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:35:y:2007:i:4:p:541-567
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6229.2007.00200.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2007.00200.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2007.00200.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huddart, Steven & Ke, Bin & Shi, Charles, 2007. "Jeopardy, non-public information, and insider trading around SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-36, March.
    2. John L. Glascock & Szu-Yin Hung, 2005. "Momentum Profitability and Market Trend: Evidence from REITs," ERES eres2005_184, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Kim, J.W. & Leatham, D.J. & Bessler, D.A., 2007. "REITs' dynamics under structural change with unknown break points," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 37-58, March.
    4. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980, Decembrie.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Coble & Pablo Pincheira, 2021. "Forecasting building permits with Google Trends," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3315-3345, December.
    2. Kouwenberg, Roy & Zwinkels, Remco, 2014. "Forecasting the US housing market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 415-425.
    3. Katlego Kola & Tumellano Sebehela, 2021. "Market The (De)merits of using Integral Transforms in Predicting Structural Break Points," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 405-467.
    4. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
    5. Paul M Anglin & Yanmin Gao, 2011. "Integrating Illiquid Assets into the Portfolio Decision Process," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 277-311, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. R. Andergassen, 2003. "Rational destabilising speculation and the riding of bubbles," Working Papers 475, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    2. Estelle Cantillon & Aurélie Slechten, 2018. "Information Aggregation in Emissions Markets with Abatement," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 132, pages 53-79.
    3. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2004. "Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1194, CESifo.
    4. Salman Arif & John D. Kepler & Joseph Schroeder & Daniel Taylor, 2022. "Audit process, private information, and insider trading," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1125-1156, September.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Francesca Franco & Christopher D. Ittner & Oktay Urcan, 2017. "Determinants and Trading Performance of Equity Deferrals by Corporate Outside Directors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 114-138, January.
    7. Waleed Khalid & Kashif Ur Rehman & Muhammad Kashif, 2019. "The Impact of Merger and Acquisition Firms on Stock Market Bubble," Global Regional Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(1), pages 335-342, March.
    8. Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2005. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1403-1426, December.
    9. Kenneth Yung & Yen-Chih Liu, 2009. "Implications of futures trading volume: Hedgers versus speculators," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(5), pages 318-337, December.
    10. Gabriel Desgranges & Celine Rochon, 2008. "Conformism, Public News and Market Effciency," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe16, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    11. Guriev, Sergei & Kvasov, Dmitriy, 2009. "Imperfect competition in financial markets and capital structure," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 131-146, October.
    12. repec:awi:wpaper:0567 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Billings, Mary Brooke & Cedergren, Matthew C., 2015. "Strategic silence, insider selling and litigation risk," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 119-142.
    14. John Conlon, 2005. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles?," Game Theory and Information 0508007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Koessler, Frédéric & Noussair, Charles & Ziegelmeyer, Anthony, 2008. "Parimutuel betting under asymmetric information," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 733-744, July.
    16. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2008. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 837-866, August.
    17. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Germana Corrado, 2005. "Liquidity Shocks, Banking System Failures, and Supranational Lending of Last Resort Facilities," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 1-24, May.
    19. Tan, Senren & Jin, Zhuo & Wu, Fuke, 2015. "Arbitrage and leverage strategies in bubbles under synchronization risks and noise-trader risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 331-343.
    20. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    21. Sujoy Mukerji & Han N. Ozsoylev & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2023. "Trading Ambiguity: A Tale Of Two Heterogeneities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1127-1164, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:35:y:2007:i:4:p:541-567. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.