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Poverty Mapping with Aggregate Census Data: What is the Loss in Precision?

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Author Info
Nicholas Minot
Bob Baulch

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Abstract

Spatially disaggregated maps of the incidence of poverty can be constructed by combining household survey data and census data. In some countries (notably China and India), national statistics agencies are reluctant, for reasons of confidentiality, to release household-level census data, but they are generally more willing to release aggregated census data, such as village- or district-level means. This paper examines the loss in precision associated with using aggregated census data instead of household-level data to generate poverty estimates. The authors show analytically that using aggregated census data will result in poverty rates that are biased downward (upward) if the rate is below (above) 50%, and that the bias approaches zero as the poverty rate approaches zero, 50%, and 100%. Using data from Vietnam, it is found that the mean absolute error in estimating district-level poverty rates is 2.5 percentage points if the census data are aggregated to the enumeration-area level means, and 3-4 percentage points if the data are aggregated to commune or district level. Finally, the authors propose a method for reducing the error using variances calculated from the census. When this approach is applied to the Vietnam data, this method can cut the size of the aggregation errors by around 75%. Copyright United Nations University 2005.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 5-24
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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:9:y:2005:i:1:p:5-24

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David Bigman & Stefan Dercon & Dominique Guillaume & Michel Lambotte, 1999. "Community Targeting for Poverty Reduction in Burkina Faso," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces9910, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën. [Downloadable!]
  2. Minot, Nicholas, 2000. "Generating Disaggregated Poverty Maps: An Application to Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 319-331, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Minot, Nicholas & Baulch, Bob, 2002. "The spatial distribution of poverty in Vietnam and the potential for targeting," MSSD discussion papers 42, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Wada, Nikolas & Meijer, Siet & Ahmed, Mahfuzuddin, 2002. "Fish as food," MTID discussion papers 52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
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    • Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Wada, Nikolas & Meijer, Siet & Ahmed, Mahfuzuddin, 2002. "Fish as food," MSSD discussion papers 52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Benjamin Davis, 2002. "Is it possible to avoid a lemon? Reflections on choosing a poverty mapping method," Working Papers 02-07, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA). [Downloadable!]
  3. Peterson, Everett B. & Orden, David, 2004. "Effects of tariffs and sanitary barriers on high- and low-value poultry trade," MTID discussion papers 64, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
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