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Dynamic Analysis of the Exchange Rate Regime: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in East Asia

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  • Naoyuki Yoshino
  • Sahoko Kaji
  • Tamon Asonuma

Abstract

This paper discusses exchange rate policies in East Asia. In particular, we explore whether actual policies that have been implemented by East Asian countries after the Asian Financial Crisis follow or deviate from theoretically “desirable” policies over the medium and long terms. On theoretical analysis, we show the relative superiority of a basket-peg regime with the basket weight rule when compared with a floating regime implementing the interest rate rule or money supply rule. For countries that currently adopt a fixed exchange rate regime, they would be better off shifting toward either a basket-peg or a floating regime over the medium term. A shift to a basket peg is more preferred when compared with a shift to a floating regime when the exchange rate fluctuations are large.

Suggested Citation

  • Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2015. "Dynamic Analysis of the Exchange Rate Regime: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in East Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 624-637, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:19:y:2015:i:3:p:624-637
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/rode.12163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    3. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    4. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Kaji, Sahoko & Tamon, Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Transition of the Exchange Rate Regime in the People’s Republic of China," ADBI Working Papers 476, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
    6. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2015. "Adjustments of Capital Account Restrictions and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-32.
    7. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Kaji, Sahoko & Suzuki, Ayako, 2004. "The basket-peg, dollar-peg, and floating: A comparative analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 183-217, June.
    8. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(3), pages 36-55, July.
    9. Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December.
    10. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2011. "Dynamic Effect of Change in Exchange Rate System -From the Fixed Exchange Rate Regime to the Basket-peg or Floating Regime," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2011-026, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    11. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2012. "Choices Of Optimal Monetary Policy Instruments Under The Floating And The Basket-Peg Regimes," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(04), pages 1-31.
    12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    13. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Transition of the Exchange Rate Regime in the People’s Republic of China," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24159, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2016. "Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 111-161, March.
    2. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Kaji, Sahoko & Asonuma, Tamon, 2016. "Exchange rate regime switching in Malaysia and Singapore in response to China’s move to a basket peg: A DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-37.
    3. Naoyuki Yoshino & Matthias Helble & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2017. "Exchange rate policy in the pacific: an evaluation of currency basket regimes," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 31(1), pages 3-20, May.

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