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Dynamic Transition of the Exchange Rate Regime in the People’s Republic of China

Author

Listed:
  • Naoyuki Yoshino

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

  • Sahoko Kaji
  • Tamon Asonuma

Abstract

This paper analyzes the optimal transition of the exchange rate regime in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). How the PRC can successfully reach the desired regime—whether a basket peg or floating regime—from the current dollar-peg regime remains a major question. To answer it, we develop a dynamic small open-economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies toward the basket-peg or floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies to those of maintaining the dollar-peg regime. Quantitative analysis using PRC data from Q1 1999 to Q4 2010 leads to two conclusions. First, a gradual adjustment toward a basket-peg regime seems the most appropriate option for the PRC, and would minimize the welfare losses associated with a shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to a basket peg is the second-best solution. This is preferable to a sudden shift to a floating regime, since it would enable the authorities to implement optimal weights efficiently in order to achieve policy goals once a decision has been made to adopt a basket-peg regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Transition of the Exchange Rate Regime in the People’s Republic of China," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24159, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:24159
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    Cited by:

    1. Aihua Wang & Faruk Balli & Xiumin Li, 2015. "Possible Best Currency Basket Selection from the Perspective of Real Effective Exchange Rate," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 635-650, October.
    2. Naoyuki Yoshino & Matthias Helble & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2017. "Exchange rate policy in the pacific: an evaluation of currency basket regimes," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 31(1), pages 3-20, May.
    3. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2016. "Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 111-161, March.
    4. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Kaji, Sahoko & Asonuma, Tamon, 2016. "Exchange rate regime switching in Malaysia and Singapore in response to China’s move to a basket peg: A DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-37.
    5. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2015. "Dynamic Analysis of the Exchange Rate Regime: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in East Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 624-637, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate regime; PRC; China; dollar-peg regime; basket-peg regime; floating regime; general equilibrium model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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